***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 23.4 23.9 21.5 1.3 67.0 61.5 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.5 21.4 1.2 64.9 61.2 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.9 21.8 1.3 66.8 61.6 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.4 18.8 0.9 61.9 58.9 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.9 19.3 0.8 59.6 58.1 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 20.9 21.1 16.8 0.6 60.5 56.9 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 23.2 22.8 21.4 1.2 64.8 60.9 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.5 17.6 0.7 60.1 56.9 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 21.6 22.5 19.7 1.0 61.5 59.1 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.9 22.5 18.5 0.9 61.3 58.4 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.7 19.1 0.8 60.1 58.0 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 21.0 21.7 18.7 0.7 61.0 57.2 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.2 17.7 0.7 60.9 56.9 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.4 23.4 19.9 1.3 64.2 61.2 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.2 23.2 19.8 1.0 64.8 61.0 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 22.3 23.0 18.6 0.8 60.9 57.8 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.2 21.3 1.3 64.9 61.4 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.1 22.3 18.1 1.0 62.6 58.8 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.3 23.0 21.6 1.3 65.6 61.5 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.2 15.1 0.7 58.6 56.5 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.2 23.1 20.7 1.1 63.7 59.6 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 23.2 23.4 21.3 1.4 67.6 62.6 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 23.4 23.5 21.6 1.3 66.6 61.8 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 21.6 22.9 19.8 1.3 64.3 60.8 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.3 23.2 19.5 1.1 64.1 60.2 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.8 17.6 0.5 60.8 55.7 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.2 23.1 20.6 1.3 65.9 61.5 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.8 19.1 0.9 62.4 59.5 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.6 17.1 17.0 0.9 60.5 57.7 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.1 21.5 1.3 66.3 61.4 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------