***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.2 20.7 18.4 -0.9 38.4 43.0 20.5 21.6 23.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 19.6 21.0 18.3 -1.0 35.8 42.3 20.4 21.8 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 19.6 20.4 18.6 -1.0 37.1 42.5 20.2 21.4 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.7 15.1 -1.5 35.0 38.0 12.6 14.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 20.1 19.9 16.3 -1.5 32.2 38.0 20.0 21.1 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 18.4 18.0 13.8 -1.8 32.9 35.4 18.0 20.2 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 18.9 20.0 18.2 -1.1 35.6 41.8 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 6.8 14.2 -1.9 31.0 35.4 6.9 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 19.7 19.4 17.1 -1.3 33.2 39.6 19.4 20.7 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 19.1 19.7 15.3 -1.6 32.8 37.7 19.7 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 19.5 19.5 16.4 -1.7 31.4 37.2 19.5 21.3 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 18.1 18.4 15.3 -1.8 31.6 36.2 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 19.6 19.4 15.5 -1.8 32.3 36.0 19.4 21.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 19.5 20.2 17.1 -1.1 36.0 42.1 20.1 21.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.7 20.3 17.1 -1.4 37.2 38.9 19.9 21.5 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.1 19.7 15.8 -1.8 31.9 36.6 19.7 22.0 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 18.9 19.6 17.9 -1.0 35.0 41.9 19.5 21.1 22.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 18.5 18.9 14.6 -1.7 32.9 37.2 18.9 20.1 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.1 20.0 18.4 -1.0 35.6 42.5 19.7 21.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 13.6 13.2 12.0 -2.0 30.3 34.1 13.3 15.2 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.9 19.9 17.9 -1.3 34.2 39.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 19.2 20.4 18.0 -0.9 35.7 42.6 20.4 21.3 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.2 18.5 -1.0 35.3 42.8 20.1 21.4 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.6 19.6 16.9 -1.3 35.7 40.7 19.5 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.8 20.2 16.7 -1.3 34.3 39.5 20.1 21.5 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 18.4 18.3 14.3 -2.0 30.0 34.3 18.4 20.1 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 19.3 19.9 17.7 -1.0 37.1 41.8 19.7 21.0 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.6 20.1 15.9 -1.5 35.3 37.7 19.9 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.7 -1.8 31.2 36.0 13.4 15.0 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.1 20.2 18.4 -1.0 37.5 42.8 19.5 21.7 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------