***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 17.7 17.5 15.8 -1.9 23.5 28.0 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 17.1 16.4 15.6 -2.4 19.0 23.8 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 17.3 17.3 15.7 -2.2 22.3 26.4 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 9.8 9.1 11.7 -2.7 16.3 22.3 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 17.8 17.9 13.3 -2.7 17.4 22.5 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 15.8 15.0 10.5 -3.1 14.9 20.3 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 16.8 16.3 15.4 -2.4 18.8 23.1 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.4 4.8 11.0 -3.0 16.9 22.0 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 17.2 17.4 14.5 -2.4 20.8 24.4 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 17.3 17.3 12.3 -2.8 19.3 23.3 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 17.8 17.2 13.5 -2.9 16.1 21.8 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 16.0 15.3 12.1 -2.9 16.8 22.2 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 16.8 16.7 13.1 -2.8 17.8 22.1 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 17.4 17.6 14.6 -2.3 24.0 27.0 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 16.8 16.6 14.6 -2.5 19.9 23.1 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 17.5 17.0 12.9 -2.9 16.1 21.4 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 16.6 16.1 15.1 -2.4 19.7 23.6 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 17.0 16.8 11.4 -2.9 17.8 22.6 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 17.2 16.7 15.7 -2.3 20.0 24.8 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 11.8 11.2 9.3 -2.9 17.3 23.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 17.4 17.3 15.2 -2.5 20.2 24.1 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 17.5 16.8 15.4 -2.2 21.3 25.8 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 17.5 16.9 15.7 -2.2 21.9 26.7 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 16.9 17.6 14.1 -2.5 21.8 24.9 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 17.1 16.5 14.1 -2.4 18.0 23.7 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 16.6 16.0 11.3 -2.7 17.2 23.0 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 17.0 16.8 15.0 -2.1 21.1 26.1 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 16.9 16.2 12.8 -2.8 16.7 21.9 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 12.0 11.8 10.8 -2.9 18.3 22.8 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 16.8 16.4 15.7 -2.2 19.8 25.1 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------