***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.1 9.2 -0.8 33.9 35.5 9.1 9.4 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.0 8.9 -0.8 33.4 35.1 8.9 9.5 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 10.1 10.5 9.3 -0.7 34.1 36.7 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 5.3 6.5 -0.8 30.6 34.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.1 7.0 -0.8 30.9 34.5 7.1 7.6 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.2 4.8 -0.6 36.0 38.0 6.1 6.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.7 8.8 8.9 -0.8 34.5 34.9 8.6 9.5 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.8 1.0 4.7 -0.7 32.1 35.9 1.0 1.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.1 7.2 -0.7 31.9 36.0 8.1 8.4 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 5.6 -0.6 32.6 36.3 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.7 7.6 6.5 -0.7 31.7 35.7 7.7 8.2 8.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.1 5.6 -0.7 32.5 36.0 6.1 6.6 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.3 5.4 -0.6 35.1 37.4 7.3 7.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.7 7.1 -0.6 33.5 38.8 8.7 9.2 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.0 8.0 -0.6 34.1 36.2 8.9 9.4 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.1 8.5 6.0 -0.6 32.0 36.4 8.6 9.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.2 8.7 -0.9 32.0 34.4 9.2 9.6 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.2 5.0 -0.6 34.6 37.8 6.2 6.6 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.9 9.0 -0.8 34.0 36.4 8.9 9.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 3.1 3.0 -0.6 33.7 36.6 3.1 3.4 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.1 8.5 -0.7 30.6 35.1 8.1 8.3 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.1 8.4 8.8 -0.7 34.7 37.3 8.3 9.0 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.4 8.9 -0.7 34.5 37.9 8.4 9.0 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 7.0 -0.6 34.9 38.6 8.1 8.6 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.2 7.9 -1.0 28.4 32.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.2 4.9 -0.6 36.7 37.7 7.2 7.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.6 8.6 -0.9 30.6 34.1 8.7 9.2 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.9 6.8 7.0 -0.7 32.1 35.7 6.8 7.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.4 4.3 -0.6 35.4 37.7 5.4 5.8 6.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 9.2 -0.8 35.3 36.3 8.9 9.4 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------