***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2020.-17.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.9 0.0 49.9 50.7 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.6 11.8 0.1 54.1 52.7 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.8 12.7 12.0 0.1 52.0 52.2 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.4 9.3 0.0 44.6 49.1 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 9.4 0.0 45.7 48.8 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.6 7.3 0.0 46.0 48.4 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.1 11.8 0.2 52.2 52.3 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.4 7.2 -0.1 45.4 47.6 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.4 9.6 0.0 48.1 50.1 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.4 8.1 0.0 48.2 49.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.7 8.8 0.0 45.9 48.2 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.0 8.0 0.0 43.9 47.1 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 7.4 0.0 46.4 47.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.3 11.1 9.5 0.0 51.0 51.3 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.7 10.5 0.1 48.4 50.3 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.7 8.2 0.0 46.5 48.3 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.5 11.7 0.2 55.2 53.6 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.8 7.3 0.1 50.4 50.9 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.8 0.1 53.6 52.8 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.8 5.1 -0.1 46.1 48.0 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.6 11.0 0.0 49.8 50.1 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.5 11.5 0.2 54.3 54.2 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.0 11.6 0.1 52.7 52.9 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.6 9.4 0.1 51.2 52.5 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.8 10.4 -0.1 46.7 49.2 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.7 7.1 -0.1 46.8 46.9 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.1 11.3 0.1 49.8 50.9 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 9.6 0.1 48.0 50.1 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.6 6.7 0.0 48.4 49.8 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.2 12.0 0.1 53.4 52.3 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------