***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2020.-10.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.9 9.6 11.1 0.6 59.2 58.2 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.6 11.0 0.7 61.1 59.9 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.3 11.2 0.7 61.7 60.1 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 6.6 7.0 8.2 0.4 56.5 55.4 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 9.0 8.9 8.4 0.4 58.4 56.5 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.1 6.2 0.4 57.6 56.2 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.2 10.9 0.7 60.0 59.2 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 2.3 2.4 6.2 0.5 58.4 57.6 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 9.2 9.3 8.7 0.6 60.2 58.3 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.3 9.4 7.1 0.6 60.0 58.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.1 7.7 0.4 57.3 56.9 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.6 7.0 0.4 57.1 57.0 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.0 6.4 0.3 56.5 55.9 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.2 8.8 0.8 62.7 61.7 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.3 9.3 0.3 54.5 54.9 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.8 9.8 7.1 0.4 58.0 56.3 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.6 10.8 0.7 61.1 60.1 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.6 6.5 0.7 60.6 61.0 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.2 11.0 0.7 61.8 60.5 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 4.2 4.2 4.3 0.6 56.7 58.0 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.6 10.1 0.6 60.7 58.1 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.0 10.7 0.9 64.2 61.9 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.9 10.8 0.8 62.9 61.2 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.7 8.6 0.8 63.2 62.3 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.3 9.5 0.4 55.2 56.0 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.8 6.0 0.3 54.8 54.8 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.2 10.6 10.4 0.6 58.2 57.6 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 8.1 8.3 8.5 0.4 57.7 56.4 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.9 5.9 0.7 58.7 59.8 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.8 10.6 11.1 0.7 61.1 59.7 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------