***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.0 8.4 -1.3 33.4 37.5 8.9 9.8 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 7.7 7.6 7.9 -1.5 29.0 35.2 7.9 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 9.1 9.7 8.5 -1.2 32.1 37.4 9.8 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.7 4.4 5.7 -1.2 31.9 37.9 4.5 5.6 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.4 6.4 -1.1 31.1 38.3 6.4 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.9 5.0 4.0 -1.1 34.1 38.9 5.0 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 7.4 7.4 7.9 -1.5 30.4 35.1 7.7 9.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.1 -0.2 3.8 -1.3 25.9 36.5 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.6 6.9 6.5 -1.1 30.9 38.1 7.0 8.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.0 7.0 4.7 -1.2 27.8 37.4 7.2 8.2 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.4 6.4 5.8 -1.1 29.0 37.9 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.0 4.8 4.8 -1.2 29.0 37.6 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.1 6.1 4.8 -1.1 31.3 38.6 6.1 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.6 6.3 -1.0 29.8 38.6 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.6 8.3 7.2 -1.0 33.4 38.7 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.2 5.4 -1.1 32.5 38.7 8.2 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 7.8 8.1 7.5 -1.6 27.0 34.0 9.0 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 4.7 4.1 -1.2 28.4 37.3 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.8 8.0 -1.4 29.8 36.0 8.0 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.8 1.9 2.2 -1.3 27.2 37.3 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.5 7.3 7.7 -1.2 31.7 37.7 7.3 8.6 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.7 -1.4 27.1 35.4 7.8 8.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.9 -1.2 31.4 36.8 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.9 7.1 6.2 -1.1 31.1 38.3 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.3 6.7 7.3 -1.4 31.7 36.9 6.9 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.2 4.2 -1.1 30.2 38.3 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.5 6.8 7.8 -1.4 33.0 37.1 6.8 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.7 5.8 6.2 -1.1 32.3 38.7 5.9 7.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.5 3.3 -1.3 27.2 36.5 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.4 7.9 8.2 -1.4 30.9 36.0 7.9 9.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------