***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 5.2 5.0 5.3 -2.7 15.7 16.6 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 4.3 4.1 5.1 -2.7 16.0 16.6 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 6.9 6.8 5.7 -2.5 17.0 17.8 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.2 2.9 -2.3 16.8 20.1 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 3.0 2.8 3.9 -2.3 16.9 19.0 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 3.4 3.2 1.7 -1.6 20.9 26.2 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 4.8 4.6 5.0 -2.7 15.6 16.3 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 1.7 -1.7 19.0 24.0 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 4.2 3.8 4.2 -2.1 16.7 20.0 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 4.9 4.4 2.6 -1.9 18.1 22.4 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 4.2 4.1 3.9 -1.9 19.0 22.8 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 3.2 2.9 2.8 -1.8 18.2 23.8 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.7 3.1 -1.6 21.4 26.9 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 5.2 4.9 3.9 -2.1 17.7 21.0 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 5.4 5.2 5.0 -1.8 21.3 23.7 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 4.7 4.2 3.4 -1.8 19.8 23.8 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 5.0 4.8 4.7 -2.8 15.3 15.7 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 3.0 2.8 2.0 -1.9 18.4 22.7 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 4.6 4.4 5.2 -2.6 16.5 17.7 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 0.0 -0.3 0.4 -1.7 19.1 24.7 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 4.0 3.7 5.1 -2.4 15.8 17.7 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 3.8 3.6 5.2 -2.6 16.1 17.2 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 5.0 4.9 5.3 -2.3 17.3 19.1 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.0 -2.1 18.0 20.7 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 94 6 0 100 4.2 3.4 4.4 -2.8 12.9 15.8 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 4.1 4.2 2.3 -1.4 22.3 29.7 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 3.8 3.2 4.8 -2.9 14.3 15.6 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 3.6 3.4 3.8 -2.1 19.1 22.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 78 22 0 100 2.6 2.3 1.5 -1.6 20.6 25.2 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 4.8 4.6 5.4 -2.6 16.9 17.5 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------