***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 28.7 30.5 42.6 78.6 36.9 38.6 27.6 41.1 56.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.9 25.5 42.4 79.1 39.9 38.7 18.4 37.3 56.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 31.2 27.7 42.6 79.5 37.5 38.9 25.6 46.7 60.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 44.0 51.8 56.1 83.8 42.1 39.6 44.8 62.8 69.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 30.2 38.5 54.7 85.7 42.6 40.8 33.6 46.1 58.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 35.7 40.8 69.7 83.6 39.2 38.5 37.9 47.3 65.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.8 34.3 43.1 79.3 40.2 38.7 21.9 42.0 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 76.1 79.2 59.1 81.8 37.9 38.0 75.2 89.1 97.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 33.1 33.7 53.1 85.9 40.4 41.1 30.7 45.3 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 35.5 39.9 59.8 81.9 35.5 37.7 39.1 46.1 58.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 30.4 38.7 50.0 83.7 40.9 39.6 33.5 41.7 51.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 50.1 46.0 48.5 82.2 41.8 39.3 44.9 46.3 52.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 33.0 38.7 56.4 81.9 39.7 37.3 35.1 44.3 55.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 34.8 39.4 53.3 77.7 32.5 35.0 39.8 51.8 71.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 25.9 34.0 49.3 77.6 37.6 35.5 31.0 43.7 56.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 33.6 39.0 53.5 83.3 39.9 38.1 37.4 43.6 58.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.9 29.4 41.6 77.7 34.6 36.7 26.3 48.7 63.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 46.4 40.8 64.8 79.4 32.0 35.0 42.5 69.9 81.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 35.8 38.3 41.4 77.9 40.5 38.4 34.2 51.3 65.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 39.2 47.1 73.9 82.3 33.7 37.1 46.2 60.7 65.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 27.8 34.8 45.9 84.1 41.3 40.8 28.3 40.0 49.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 26.9 29.0 42.3 79.6 39.8 39.0 22.9 38.8 54.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 26.0 25.1 41.5 76.3 38.3 37.2 23.7 36.5 57.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 36.9 42.1 53.1 77.5 29.8 34.6 44.9 53.3 73.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 31.9 42.5 55.6 80.6 38.1 38.8 36.4 49.8 60.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 32.6 40.9 49.0 79.2 38.5 35.5 39.8 45.2 54.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 28.8 29.8 51.9 79.7 37.1 38.5 28.7 43.7 59.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 29.7 35.3 53.5 81.7 41.8 37.6 29.3 43.1 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 56.6 59.5 67.3 80.7 34.0 35.9 59.3 73.3 88.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 47.0 28.4 42.6 79.4 42.1 39.5 19.2 39.3 58.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------