***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.9 12.0 12.8 96.3 61.4 49.3 2.9 4.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 9.0 11.7 92.6 59.9 49.3 2.5 5.6 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 14.0 12.8 99.5 62.8 49.0 2.7 6.3 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 20.4 17.0 100.4 65.5 46.8 4.0 10.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.2 11.7 16.6 102.4 62.3 45.6 3.7 7.1 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.6 18.5 87.2 52.4 43.1 6.0 9.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.9 5.9 11.3 86.4 58.1 47.6 2.3 4.1 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 9.6 19.6 17.2 92.2 59.8 44.4 10.1 18.8 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.5 12.3 15.9 102.2 60.7 45.4 2.9 8.6 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.3 14.9 17.9 95.2 59.8 44.5 6.9 10.0 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.3 6.0 14.6 95.7 61.6 43.9 3.7 5.0 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.5 11.5 13.4 90.2 59.2 43.9 4.8 8.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.5 14.6 84.8 53.8 42.1 3.2 5.0 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.6 16.5 15.7 90.8 57.6 45.9 3.3 15.0 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.7 14.6 92.4 63.1 46.4 2.7 7.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.2 14.8 91.3 58.1 43.8 4.5 7.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.3 10.2 82.0 56.9 46.6 2.3 5.8 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 6.5 15.1 19.5 93.0 56.3 46.1 10.2 13.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 15.9 11.9 95.0 60.9 49.5 2.3 12.3 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 8.6 20.8 91.2 55.0 46.3 5.7 8.0 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.2 13.4 14.0 105.9 64.6 47.0 2.4 7.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 12.5 10.9 88.3 59.6 48.7 2.9 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.9 12.3 93.2 58.6 47.9 3.0 6.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.9 13.6 15.9 92.5 56.6 46.3 6.0 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.8 16.0 96.0 62.0 48.0 4.1 8.5 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.7 9.4 12.5 85.9 56.9 43.4 3.0 6.8 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.4 14.5 90.1 59.0 48.2 2.5 8.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.2 16.1 96.0 63.7 46.2 3.7 5.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 10.5 21.3 19.8 94.5 56.2 47.2 10.9 20.0 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.5 12.2 95.0 61.3 49.5 3.1 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------