***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.2 13.1 13.7 98.2 60.7 51.1 7.2 11.8 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 12.9 14.8 101.4 59.7 51.2 4.1 8.9 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.0 13.5 13.5 96.6 57.2 49.6 5.3 11.8 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.5 18.3 107.8 60.6 52.0 9.6 20.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.1 13.8 17.5 108.0 63.1 50.2 5.5 7.3 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 5.4 14.7 24.2 106.1 59.2 50.7 8.1 11.0 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.1 11.9 14.9 100.5 60.4 51.8 4.5 10.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 14.0 26.0 18.6 92.3 50.3 46.0 16.7 25.9 32.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.1 16.4 105.0 62.5 49.9 3.6 9.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.7 11.9 18.5 93.2 51.6 46.0 9.7 11.9 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.7 16.3 102.4 56.5 47.2 6.4 9.8 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.7 14.5 15.8 99.3 55.2 47.5 9.0 12.9 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.4 13.7 19.5 106.1 57.3 49.7 8.7 11.3 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 8.2 16.8 16.0 88.2 54.2 45.6 7.5 15.4 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.1 16.8 104.8 61.5 52.8 5.5 8.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.1 18.2 106.3 57.8 49.3 7.3 11.6 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.4 13.5 14.7 99.5 57.9 49.8 5.0 11.5 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.1 9.8 19.3 85.7 48.6 44.5 6.4 10.0 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.5 19.8 14.0 100.6 57.9 50.3 9.7 17.2 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 13.7 23.0 90.6 52.0 47.4 9.1 13.6 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.2 14.2 105.3 60.4 51.0 6.5 10.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.4 15.4 14.7 106.9 62.0 50.2 5.9 9.8 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.0 15.4 13.2 97.9 55.4 48.7 6.9 13.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.3 11.5 15.7 86.4 50.6 45.1 5.7 11.4 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.8 17.7 99.4 58.6 50.6 7.2 11.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.0 14.4 16.7 99.8 60.8 48.2 8.1 12.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 16.6 16.9 98.4 60.8 50.5 7.2 12.3 18.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.5 14.9 18.0 106.7 60.4 51.3 7.4 10.6 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 15.8 20.0 86.5 49.2 45.0 9.8 15.9 25.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.9 14.1 14.6 101.0 59.6 51.7 2.4 10.1 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------