***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.2 2.8 9.8 67.3 44.3 42.8 2.2 3.6 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.8 11.0 77.8 51.2 45.0 1.8 2.6 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.7 9.7 68.0 47.6 41.7 2.2 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.2 7.3 12.1 63.8 43.2 40.0 6.2 7.9 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.6 4.3 11.0 62.0 42.5 39.0 3.0 4.8 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.7 15.9 68.9 41.3 39.1 3.8 8.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.0 11.5 81.2 56.6 46.2 1.2 4.0 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.6 9.7 12.6 70.4 47.1 43.3 7.9 9.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.9 10.2 61.2 44.4 39.2 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.7 4.7 12.0 65.2 44.3 39.6 2.9 5.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.5 10.3 65.9 47.0 42.2 1.2 4.3 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.1 10.6 70.0 50.7 45.3 3.2 6.1 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.0 12.8 68.0 44.4 40.2 3.9 6.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.2 12.9 70.8 42.7 40.7 5.4 8.0 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 4.5 11.9 65.2 44.1 40.1 2.8 4.8 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.0 3.5 11.6 66.1 45.5 41.1 2.0 4.2 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.6 11.8 86.2 57.7 46.5 1.5 2.8 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 4.2 13.5 66.2 43.9 39.4 2.9 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.2 10.4 74.1 49.5 43.4 1.9 4.3 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 6.4 16.9 74.7 47.0 42.8 4.0 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 3.6 9.0 60.7 44.9 39.6 2.3 4.2 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.8 12.0 85.6 56.5 47.2 0.8 3.5 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.9 4.9 10.3 70.4 45.1 41.2 2.8 5.6 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 4.1 11.7 66.5 42.3 39.2 3.2 5.8 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.6 13.1 69.4 48.0 42.5 1.9 5.9 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.6 10.6 64.5 41.2 38.0 2.4 3.8 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.5 12.8 73.8 50.1 44.4 2.4 3.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.2 11.4 62.4 41.7 39.3 2.5 3.7 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.2 8.5 14.6 69.8 45.2 40.9 3.3 11.3 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.2 10.6 74.7 51.0 44.7 0.6 3.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------