***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.2 6.3 50.6 41.2 34.8 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 2.5 2.4 4.9 40.0 28.2 28.8 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.4 8.9 6.6 52.7 41.8 36.8 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.9 10.2 8.7 61.8 41.5 37.9 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.6 6.7 9.7 70.3 46.5 42.4 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.4 4.5 11.1 68.3 37.7 37.5 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 3.1 3.6 5.5 44.3 29.0 30.3 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.5 11.8 10.7 68.9 40.1 38.8 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.1 9.1 10.6 76.0 50.3 46.7 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.1 8.8 11.4 71.8 45.4 42.6 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.3 7.9 8.8 68.2 45.0 40.4 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.8 8.7 66.7 39.9 37.5 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.6 4.3 9.4 65.6 33.5 35.2 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.3 8.7 58.7 40.0 36.4 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 3.1 2.7 6.0 44.9 34.1 28.8 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.2 8.9 66.5 40.9 38.1 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 2.6 3.0 4.9 38.7 27.7 27.2 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 12.5 12.4 70.3 44.5 41.3 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.0 39.8 29.8 29.1 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.2 13.2 69.5 39.7 37.8 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.9 7.3 8.7 66.7 47.3 44.1 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.4 3.7 4.7 36.5 29.0 27.6 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.7 43.7 33.5 30.4 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.0 9.8 62.9 41.7 39.4 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.9 8.7 56.3 43.3 36.3 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 2.9 9.2 65.2 38.2 36.4 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.5 7.5 7.8 53.3 41.6 35.1 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.4 7.9 58.7 38.5 35.3 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 9.2 12.9 70.3 44.3 40.7 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 4.4 3.9 5.2 43.0 31.4 31.0 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------