***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 20.4 20.7 19.8 -0.7 31.9 35.2 20.7 21.2 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.0 20.0 -0.5 38.1 40.3 20.4 21.3 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 20.3 20.7 19.9 -0.6 32.5 36.5 20.7 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 13.3 13.5 17.9 -0.8 32.3 34.6 13.5 14.1 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 20.6 20.7 18.2 -0.8 31.4 34.2 20.7 21.5 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 19.1 19.2 16.2 -0.8 30.8 34.6 19.2 20.0 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 20.0 20.1 19.8 -0.6 35.4 38.1 20.0 20.8 22.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.4 16.7 -0.7 32.7 36.3 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 20.0 20.1 18.8 -0.8 31.1 34.7 20.4 20.9 21.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 20.0 20.1 17.5 -0.8 31.4 35.4 20.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 20.2 20.1 17.8 -0.8 30.4 34.6 20.2 21.0 21.8 29 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 19.3 19.8 17.4 -0.8 31.5 35.7 19.8 20.0 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 20.3 20.2 17.0 -0.9 29.6 33.9 20.4 21.1 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 20.3 20.5 18.6 -0.7 32.3 37.2 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.6 18.5 -0.7 35.1 36.1 20.5 21.4 22.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 20.7 21.0 17.5 -0.8 30.1 34.2 21.0 21.5 22.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.4 20.2 19.7 -0.5 38.1 40.1 19.8 20.8 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 19.4 19.6 16.9 -0.7 31.4 36.3 19.7 20.4 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.4 20.1 -0.4 37.7 40.5 20.1 21.0 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 14.1 15.0 14.7 -0.7 33.0 37.5 15.0 15.5 16.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 20.2 20.4 19.4 -0.8 31.4 34.5 20.5 21.2 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.0 19.8 -0.4 39.0 41.2 20.3 21.3 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 20.8 19.9 -0.5 35.7 39.0 20.6 21.6 22.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 19.8 20.1 18.5 -0.7 31.0 36.0 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 20.1 20.4 18.3 -0.8 31.0 33.1 20.4 21.2 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 19.3 19.8 16.7 -0.8 32.1 35.2 19.8 20.6 21.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 19.9 20.5 19.1 -0.8 31.5 33.9 20.5 21.0 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 20.3 20.6 18.2 -0.7 33.4 35.5 20.6 21.3 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 14.2 14.8 15.9 -0.7 32.1 37.1 14.8 15.2 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.0 20.1 20.1 -0.5 35.2 38.9 20.0 21.0 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------