***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.3 23.5 22.2 0.0 48.6 52.1 22.3 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.1 22.4 0.3 49.7 55.3 22.5 24.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.8 22.2 0.0 47.5 52.2 22.3 23.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.5 20.2 -0.3 45.9 49.2 15.3 16.6 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.5 20.3 -0.3 44.4 49.1 22.3 24.0 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 22.7 21.7 18.4 -0.3 47.2 48.2 21.2 21.9 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.1 22.4 0.3 50.6 55.2 21.5 24.0 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.3 18.8 -0.2 47.9 49.9 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 21.5 22.6 20.7 -0.3 43.2 49.2 22.0 23.0 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 23.5 22.6 19.6 -0.2 46.5 49.8 21.6 22.8 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.9 19.8 -0.2 44.7 49.2 22.1 23.3 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.2 19.6 -0.2 46.7 49.5 21.6 22.4 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.2 19.1 -0.2 46.8 48.9 22.6 23.3 23.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.7 20.6 0.0 50.1 52.6 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.7 20.5 -0.2 47.2 49.4 22.2 23.8 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.5 23.7 19.5 -0.3 45.3 48.8 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.9 22.2 0.3 49.7 55.3 21.2 22.9 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.7 19.0 -0.1 50.1 51.7 21.3 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.3 22.4 0.2 49.3 54.8 21.8 23.4 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.8 16.9 0.0 50.5 52.2 16.2 17.8 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.8 21.5 -0.2 44.2 49.8 22.4 23.1 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.3 23.7 22.1 0.3 49.8 55.3 22.1 23.7 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.1 22.1 0.1 48.8 53.5 22.2 24.2 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.9 20.6 -0.1 48.1 52.0 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.4 20.6 -0.2 47.1 50.5 22.4 23.7 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.2 19.0 -0.1 48.2 49.7 21.6 22.3 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 24.0 23.4 21.4 0.0 49.3 52.2 22.0 23.4 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.1 23.8 20.3 -0.3 46.1 48.7 22.2 24.0 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.0 18.1 0.0 51.5 52.7 16.6 18.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.1 22.4 0.2 50.0 54.6 21.5 24.1 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------