***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.6 20.8 -0.3 45.9 46.8 20.3 21.8 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 22.9 21.4 20.7 -0.3 43.6 47.3 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.6 20.8 -0.3 44.7 46.6 20.4 22.3 23.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.6 19.2 -0.2 47.5 48.7 13.6 14.8 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.2 21.5 19.3 -0.3 46.9 47.7 20.8 21.7 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.3 17.7 0.0 49.3 50.8 19.2 20.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.1 20.6 -0.3 45.1 47.4 20.1 21.7 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.1 17.8 -0.3 45.7 48.1 8.1 9.8 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.1 19.6 -0.3 45.7 46.9 20.0 21.2 22.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.9 20.8 18.5 -0.3 45.5 47.6 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.3 18.8 -0.2 47.0 48.5 20.4 21.6 23.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.1 18.6 -0.3 46.4 48.6 19.3 20.4 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.1 21.2 18.2 -0.2 47.5 49.2 20.1 21.4 23.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.5 19.2 -0.6 39.5 45.1 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 22.3 21.5 19.6 0.0 46.6 49.8 20.9 21.7 23.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.8 18.7 -0.2 48.5 49.2 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.9 20.5 20.3 -0.4 43.2 46.7 19.8 21.6 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.2 19.7 17.8 -0.4 42.9 46.8 19.2 20.6 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.8 20.7 -0.3 43.2 47.2 19.5 21.9 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.5 15.6 -0.4 43.6 47.4 14.3 15.7 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.4 20.3 -0.3 45.8 46.5 20.1 21.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.5 20.8 20.2 -0.4 42.8 45.8 20.3 22.5 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 20.9 20.5 -0.4 41.9 46.4 20.5 22.3 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.7 20.4 19.2 -0.5 41.7 46.0 20.3 21.2 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.3 21.3 19.3 -0.3 46.8 47.0 20.3 21.7 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.3 18.0 -0.2 46.0 49.6 19.4 20.7 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.4 20.0 -0.3 45.5 47.1 20.7 21.7 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.8 19.4 -0.1 49.0 49.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.6 14.5 16.8 -0.5 41.7 46.7 13.6 16.1 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.3 20.8 -0.3 45.0 47.4 20.1 22.0 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------