***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 17.0 16.0 16.0 -2.7 11.5 14.9 18.7 19.4 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 17.0 16.4 16.5 -2.2 16.9 20.4 18.4 19.6 20.5 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 16.5 15.7 16.2 -2.6 13.9 16.7 18.5 19.6 20.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 9.2 6.6 13.6 -2.9 8.9 12.8 10.8 12.2 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 17.2 14.1 14.3 -3.0 9.5 13.3 18.9 19.5 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 15.5 12.8 11.7 -3.4 7.9 11.0 17.1 17.9 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 16.4 15.9 16.1 -2.5 13.7 17.2 17.5 19.3 19.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 93 7 0 100 4.9 3.8 12.6 -2.8 12.5 16.2 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 95 5 0 100 16.6 13.9 15.3 -2.9 10.6 14.7 18.4 18.9 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 16.9 15.3 13.6 -2.9 12.2 15.7 18.3 18.9 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 17.3 14.3 14.1 -3.0 10.8 14.2 18.2 19.3 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 94 6 0 100 15.3 13.6 13.3 -2.9 11.3 14.9 17.7 18.5 20.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 96 4 0 100 16.3 14.5 13.0 -3.3 10.6 11.6 18.5 19.1 20.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 17.0 17.0 15.4 -2.4 17.3 19.6 18.5 19.7 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 16.4 13.8 15.2 -2.7 8.4 14.1 18.3 18.9 20.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 17.1 15.0 13.6 -3.2 10.5 12.3 19.0 19.3 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 16.6 16.0 16.3 -2.1 17.1 21.4 17.4 19.2 19.7 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 16.6 16.0 13.0 -2.8 14.3 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 17.0 16.4 16.5 -2.2 16.9 20.6 18.2 19.4 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 11.4 10.5 10.7 -2.8 13.2 16.6 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 16.6 14.7 15.9 -2.9 11.0 15.0 18.6 19.5 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 17.3 16.8 16.5 -1.9 19.2 23.6 18.1 19.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 17.0 16.5 16.4 -2.3 15.6 19.7 18.6 19.7 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 16.3 15.6 14.9 -2.7 14.8 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 99 1 0 100 16.1 14.6 14.6 -3.1 9.1 12.7 18.2 19.4 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 94 6 0 100 16.0 13.3 12.2 -3.2 8.0 11.1 17.8 18.5 20.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 16.3 15.1 15.2 -3.0 9.8 13.3 17.8 18.9 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 16.4 14.4 14.3 -2.9 8.6 13.7 17.9 19.2 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 11.6 11.1 12.2 -2.7 15.1 17.6 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 16.5 16.0 16.4 -2.3 14.7 18.6 17.7 19.4 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------