***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.05.2015.-17.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.0 11.8 -0.1 54.5 50.8 10.0 11.0 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.6 11.9 0.1 54.2 52.3 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 11.5 -0.2 48.7 48.9 11.9 12.7 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.3 9.3 -0.4 36.7 43.8 7.0 7.8 9.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.3 9.1 -0.5 37.1 42.9 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.4 7.5 -0.3 40.6 45.0 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 12.0 0.1 54.2 52.5 10.0 11.1 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.0 7.3 -0.5 39.0 43.1 2.9 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.1 9.5 -0.5 39.5 43.5 9.8 10.5 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.1 7.9 -0.6 37.7 42.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.4 9.5 8.6 -0.6 35.3 41.0 9.5 9.9 10.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.7 7.8 8.1 -0.6 38.4 41.9 7.7 8.4 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.5 7.6 -0.5 38.3 41.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.2 9.5 -0.5 40.6 44.4 9.9 11.1 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 10.3 10.5 9.9 -0.4 39.3 44.9 10.5 10.7 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.2 8.3 -0.6 35.9 41.1 10.2 11.0 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.8 0.1 54.3 52.2 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.6 7.3 -0.5 39.5 43.3 8.0 8.8 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.0 11.7 0.0 52.0 51.0 10.2 11.0 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.8 5.7 -0.4 42.6 45.1 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.2 10.7 -0.4 42.5 46.3 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.1 11.6 0.0 48.8 50.7 9.9 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 11.2 -0.2 46.5 48.1 10.0 10.8 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.9 9.3 -0.5 39.7 44.7 9.6 10.5 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.6 10.1 -0.3 43.1 47.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.2 7.8 -0.6 38.9 42.0 8.8 9.8 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.1 11.0 -0.1 50.1 50.0 10.7 11.1 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.9 9.5 -0.5 37.3 42.9 8.6 9.2 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.5 6.7 -0.4 39.8 43.9 7.2 7.6 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.2 12.0 0.0 52.8 51.9 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------