***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.05.2015.-10.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.0 10.5 -0.5 42.0 46.0 8.6 9.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.8 8.7 10.4 -0.4 40.0 45.4 8.5 9.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.0 10.2 -0.5 42.8 45.5 10.5 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.0 8.1 -0.5 40.4 44.3 5.3 6.2 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.1 7.5 8.0 -0.5 41.7 44.4 6.8 8.8 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.0 6.5 -0.3 44.6 46.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 10.5 -0.4 41.8 46.2 9.0 9.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.5 6.4 -0.4 42.5 45.9 1.1 1.9 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.5 8.4 -0.4 42.8 45.9 8.1 8.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.4 6.9 -0.4 43.4 46.0 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 7.5 -0.4 43.6 44.8 7.7 8.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.9 7.2 -0.4 42.7 45.5 6.0 7.3 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.8 6.7 -0.4 44.3 45.4 7.0 8.3 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.3 8.4 -0.6 36.7 42.2 9.2 9.6 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.9 8.8 -0.3 46.5 46.8 9.0 10.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.8 7.3 -0.4 45.0 45.3 8.0 9.3 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.6 10.1 -0.5 40.0 44.1 9.1 10.3 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.7 6.3 -0.4 42.8 45.7 6.4 7.0 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.0 9.3 10.2 -0.5 40.0 44.8 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.3 3.6 4.6 -0.4 42.8 46.6 3.1 4.0 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 9.5 -0.5 42.0 45.4 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.7 8.8 10.0 -0.6 38.0 42.6 8.7 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.0 9.8 -0.5 38.5 43.8 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.1 8.2 -0.5 40.9 44.3 8.5 9.4 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.5 8.8 -0.6 40.4 43.9 8.4 8.9 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.5 7.0 -0.4 42.7 44.6 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.8 9.7 -0.5 42.6 45.4 8.4 9.5 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.2 7.3 8.5 -0.4 44.3 45.8 7.0 7.8 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.0 5.7 -0.4 41.1 45.6 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.0 10.5 -0.4 40.9 46.1 8.7 9.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------