***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.1 9.5 -0.4 39.6 42.7 8.9 9.8 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 8.9 9.6 -0.2 43.3 46.4 7.9 9.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.0 9.2 -0.4 38.7 43.0 9.8 10.9 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 5.2 7.0 -0.5 39.1 41.0 4.5 5.6 6.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.5 6.7 7.0 -0.5 38.8 41.4 6.4 8.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.7 5.5 0.0 48.2 49.6 5.0 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.4 9.6 -0.2 45.4 46.2 7.7 9.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.0 5.4 -0.3 43.8 45.3 0.5 1.1 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 8.9 7.5 7.4 -0.4 40.1 42.0 7.0 8.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.5 6.0 -0.4 41.3 43.2 7.2 8.2 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.1 6.6 -0.3 41.4 43.9 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.4 6.2 -0.2 43.0 45.7 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.6 6.9 5.8 -0.2 43.7 46.6 6.1 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.7 7.5 -0.4 37.3 41.9 7.6 8.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.7 7.6 -0.4 40.3 43.5 8.3 8.9 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.8 6.4 -0.2 42.5 45.6 8.2 9.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.3 9.4 -0.2 45.7 46.4 9.0 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.4 5.4 -0.3 39.5 43.2 5.0 6.1 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.6 9.4 -0.3 41.4 45.3 8.0 9.0 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 3.4 2.9 4.0 -0.1 46.2 48.1 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.5 8.5 -0.5 38.4 41.3 7.3 8.6 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.8 8.2 9.3 -0.2 43.1 45.9 7.8 8.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.1 7.9 8.9 -0.4 38.1 43.2 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.6 7.2 -0.4 37.4 41.7 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 7.6 7.7 7.7 -0.6 36.4 39.7 6.9 9.3 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.9 6.1 -0.1 45.4 47.7 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 10.9 7.7 8.7 -0.4 39.7 42.0 6.8 10.5 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.2 7.3 -0.3 41.3 44.3 5.9 7.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.2 4.9 -0.3 42.0 44.5 4.8 5.7 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 10.1 8.6 9.6 -0.2 42.3 45.9 7.9 9.7 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------