***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 5.0 4.0 5.1 -3.2 7.8 8.3 6.5 8.1 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 4.2 3.4 5.6 -2.4 11.4 13.2 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 6.7 4.4 5.3 -2.8 7.9 9.6 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 1.0 -1.1 2.5 -3.4 2.5 4.6 2.7 4.3 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 2.7 1.1 3.0 -3.1 3.0 5.5 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 2.8 1.5 0.8 -3.1 2.0 3.7 3.7 4.7 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 4.6 3.2 5.6 -2.4 10.2 12.5 6.3 7.7 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -2.2 -4.7 0.8 -3.2 2.9 4.5 -1.2 0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 3.8 2.4 3.6 -2.9 3.2 6.5 5.3 6.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 4.4 2.3 1.7 -3.1 3.1 5.5 5.1 6.9 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 3.7 2.3 2.3 -3.1 2.4 4.4 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 2.8 1.3 1.4 -3.3 2.5 3.7 3.4 4.8 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 3.6 3.2 1.5 -2.9 3.4 5.8 4.6 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 4.9 2.7 3.8 -2.7 7.0 8.6 6.3 7.5 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 4.9 4.6 4.4 -2.5 7.7 10.9 6.0 7.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 4.1 2.8 2.0 -3.0 2.6 4.9 5.5 7.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 5.0 4.5 5.5 -2.3 13.5 14.8 6.6 7.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 2.7 1.1 1.1 -2.9 3.4 6.6 3.1 4.4 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 4.5 3.4 5.6 -2.5 11.3 12.7 6.0 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 -0.7 -2.6 5.8 8.7 0.9 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 3.7 2.1 4.8 -3.0 5.7 7.8 5.3 6.6 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 3.7 3.5 5.7 -2.2 13.5 15.2 5.8 6.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 4.7 4.4 5.2 -2.5 11.1 11.4 5.6 6.9 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 4.2 2.9 3.4 -2.8 5.4 7.9 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 4.0 2.0 3.8 -3.3 5.0 6.6 4.9 7.1 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 3.5 2.9 1.4 -2.7 6.0 6.8 4.7 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 3.6 1.8 4.4 -3.2 6.2 7.5 5.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 3.3 2.3 3.4 -2.9 5.7 8.3 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 98 2 0 100 2.1 -1.3 0.7 -2.7 4.4 8.0 3.0 4.5 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 4.5 3.0 5.7 -2.5 10.2 12.0 6.6 7.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------