***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 47.3 52.0 67.9 107.6 63.4 55.4 29.4 40.7 56.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 44.6 48.6 57.4 101.7 56.9 52.7 19.7 37.7 56.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 51.9 61.0 66.5 108.3 62.4 56.6 25.5 48.0 62.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 67.5 67.1 80.1 108.6 63.1 56.2 46.0 61.8 68.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 51.0 60.7 78.2 112.8 65.2 58.7 34.8 46.0 61.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 54.3 69.2 87.6 110.9 64.2 57.2 37.9 48.0 71.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 26.2 45.9 56.4 100.4 58.0 51.6 20.1 42.1 51.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 93.0 96.2 82.0 105.4 58.5 54.5 77.4 89.8 98.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 49.1 56.9 78.0 110.5 63.6 57.5 29.7 42.7 61.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 52.9 57.6 86.5 107.7 60.4 56.2 39.3 45.3 67.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 49.1 54.9 75.1 111.2 63.9 58.0 33.8 43.8 55.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.9 52.9 73.8 110.0 62.8 57.0 43.6 46.6 58.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 51.3 62.8 82.5 112.1 65.7 57.2 36.0 45.9 62.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 55.6 54.1 85.1 102.7 55.3 53.1 35.9 47.8 63.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 28.4 54.4 72.3 109.6 62.5 55.0 30.2 45.5 56.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 45.8 55.4 78.4 111.9 64.3 57.3 32.5 39.6 56.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 32.1 55.1 52.8 95.8 52.5 48.7 25.2 49.3 62.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 71.1 70.4 90.2 106.0 59.0 55.0 49.9 67.0 79.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 53.2 56.9 60.1 103.7 58.5 53.8 34.8 47.9 65.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 64.4 62.0 85.5 99.9 53.4 50.2 44.7 59.9 67.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 44.7 50.8 72.4 110.7 63.9 57.7 28.4 40.1 53.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 43.1 37.9 56.0 95.9 53.7 48.6 23.8 36.6 56.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 42.7 43.8 63.7 104.8 58.7 54.1 24.0 36.5 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 63.9 66.3 81.4 106.7 60.0 55.6 43.6 57.7 73.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 54.6 57.8 79.4 109.8 64.5 56.7 40.1 50.7 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 47.8 51.2 74.9 109.2 63.5 56.5 39.3 44.0 53.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 49.8 51.5 72.9 106.6 61.8 54.6 29.7 41.7 54.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 32.3 51.5 79.3 111.2 64.9 56.9 29.7 43.4 53.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 81.4 81.0 88.6 103.3 56.6 52.6 60.2 72.5 89.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 45.5 45.5 60.2 104.2 60.4 54.0 20.7 39.3 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------