***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.05.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.5 10.4 16.5 97.7 56.2 47.7 3.6 9.0 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.3 15.3 97.1 61.1 49.3 3.1 5.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.9 15.9 15.8 97.9 57.8 48.4 2.5 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.7 23.4 19.7 105.0 64.0 49.9 5.0 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.6 17.6 95.8 59.9 49.2 5.2 8.4 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.9 21.3 100.3 57.9 49.2 6.2 8.5 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 1.7 7.2 15.0 95.8 60.6 48.2 1.8 3.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.4 17.0 18.9 88.8 54.7 48.2 8.2 16.0 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.3 9.5 17.8 92.6 59.6 48.6 3.4 5.1 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.1 20.1 89.9 55.7 48.0 4.9 9.4 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.8 5.9 16.1 93.3 57.7 49.2 3.8 4.8 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.7 9.2 16.8 94.2 57.9 49.8 3.8 7.2 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.5 20.0 100.7 58.0 50.4 3.8 4.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.4 14.3 22.5 97.6 57.0 49.0 3.1 9.4 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.5 19.0 113.0 67.7 50.4 2.8 5.8 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.7 18.5 99.8 59.7 50.0 3.7 7.3 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.7 13.4 88.6 57.9 47.7 2.7 7.9 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.3 22.3 92.8 55.8 49.1 8.7 14.6 20.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.8 15.2 16.1 100.1 60.9 49.7 2.3 12.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.1 21.3 89.2 55.4 48.7 4.5 8.0 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.9 11.0 16.5 97.3 60.7 48.5 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.4 10.3 15.2 92.1 56.9 48.0 2.9 7.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.8 13.7 16.9 102.2 62.3 49.5 2.6 5.7 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.1 20.1 96.0 55.6 49.2 4.6 10.3 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.2 16.9 19.5 102.3 60.0 48.0 4.6 12.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.1 10.7 17.3 97.0 55.7 49.5 2.6 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.2 12.1 18.2 97.9 56.9 47.6 4.2 10.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.6 20.0 107.8 65.5 50.7 3.7 7.1 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.8 20.1 22.4 93.2 55.9 49.2 7.8 19.5 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.4 15.8 98.8 60.9 49.0 1.8 6.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------