***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.0 17.6 17.2 101.8 63.0 51.4 5.3 10.7 18.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 15.2 15.7 107.0 65.4 50.5 4.0 7.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.7 18.0 109.5 65.2 53.4 3.8 12.1 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.4 21.5 21.1 111.8 63.4 53.4 9.6 16.5 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.9 20.5 115.4 65.7 55.2 5.4 7.0 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.9 23.1 116.5 64.9 54.0 6.4 9.5 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.5 16.9 15.3 103.0 65.1 49.7 4.1 7.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 30.1 33.5 20.4 111.1 63.8 53.9 15.8 26.5 34.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.4 15.2 20.5 114.3 66.3 55.3 3.6 9.4 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 14.9 22.3 112.6 64.2 54.6 8.9 10.5 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.3 18.9 118.6 67.0 55.8 5.7 8.9 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.2 18.0 112.1 64.6 53.5 9.1 12.9 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.7 14.0 21.0 113.4 63.6 52.8 7.8 11.2 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.3 23.4 108.6 64.4 52.5 8.1 13.6 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.9 20.1 116.1 65.0 54.4 5.8 9.1 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 15.9 20.5 117.9 66.7 54.5 5.9 10.5 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.4 12.9 14.6 102.0 63.3 48.2 4.7 9.1 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 19.7 24.2 113.1 64.9 54.4 9.4 15.1 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.4 21.8 16.5 109.3 66.3 51.4 5.0 17.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 19.6 21.8 105.9 61.0 53.3 8.3 13.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.9 17.7 19.1 112.1 66.2 54.5 6.1 10.5 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 14.4 16.5 108.4 64.3 49.8 5.2 9.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.2 17.5 17.1 108.6 65.6 51.9 5.8 11.1 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 8.1 19.4 22.2 112.3 65.1 53.6 6.3 13.9 20.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.1 19.5 101.5 62.6 51.5 4.7 10.9 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.3 14.3 18.6 110.9 62.5 52.0 7.7 11.5 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 13.8 18.4 100.4 62.3 50.8 6.4 9.1 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.8 22.0 119.3 65.4 55.0 7.1 11.2 16.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 23.3 23.9 111.3 63.8 53.6 8.0 19.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.4 17.3 16.3 106.3 65.4 51.6 2.2 10.5 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------