***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.3 5.0 15.9 106.2 62.9 53.8 3.1 4.3 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.1 13.3 98.9 62.9 51.9 2.0 3.8 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.6 15.7 105.3 62.6 53.9 2.2 5.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.1 17.0 95.5 57.0 50.5 3.9 7.3 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.9 15.9 91.2 54.7 48.5 4.4 5.6 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.7 18.1 86.8 52.5 47.2 5.8 9.4 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.6 13.4 102.9 62.8 52.9 1.7 3.8 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.1 12.9 16.6 89.5 54.1 46.6 6.9 12.1 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.2 16.7 92.7 55.5 49.2 1.8 4.8 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.2 17.8 93.5 56.0 48.7 3.2 7.5 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.4 16.1 90.4 54.9 48.4 2.0 3.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.3 15.0 88.8 56.2 46.8 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.0 16.2 83.6 52.7 44.3 4.8 7.6 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 10.2 18.6 95.8 58.9 49.2 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.3 5.6 15.8 94.6 58.5 51.2 2.5 4.9 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.9 6.9 16.0 87.0 53.8 47.0 2.1 5.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 4.5 12.9 92.9 59.2 48.4 1.7 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.5 18.1 89.6 53.0 46.3 2.9 8.1 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.1 13.7 98.8 62.4 52.2 2.8 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 7.8 16.7 78.7 46.7 40.6 6.0 8.2 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.1 16.5 99.9 58.4 51.7 2.6 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.6 12.9 88.6 56.5 47.4 2.4 4.2 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.8 14.6 99.4 61.6 52.6 2.1 5.8 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.9 18.1 97.2 57.8 49.4 3.2 6.9 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.5 17.5 95.4 57.2 50.2 3.7 6.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.8 4.8 16.1 87.3 55.1 47.5 2.1 4.0 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.3 16.8 101.5 59.6 52.4 2.9 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.8 4.4 15.6 89.4 56.0 49.4 1.6 4.1 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.8 13.0 18.1 86.9 51.7 44.7 6.2 12.5 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.7 13.8 102.8 63.7 53.5 2.2 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------