***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 18.2 20.2 18.4 127.5 70.7 64.5 8.3 13.1 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 8.6 8.5 13.1 104.5 62.7 57.8 4.2 7.8 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 11.0 15.0 17.1 122.0 68.5 61.8 6.0 9.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 16.7 20.6 22.1 122.5 72.7 63.0 10.7 15.2 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 17.9 23.8 24.3 153.6 78.7 70.3 5.3 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 17.0 17.9 25.1 146.5 74.8 69.7 6.2 9.8 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 7.5 7.6 12.7 100.6 63.0 57.1 4.3 6.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 24.9 33.3 26.1 133.4 72.8 66.7 11.6 14.7 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 15.6 18.4 23.0 149.2 77.2 69.8 7.2 9.6 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 46 54 100 19.0 19.2 26.4 138.2 74.3 67.6 8.7 12.3 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 17.4 20.2 23.9 146.6 75.6 68.7 8.6 11.9 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 19.8 23.6 24.0 147.0 75.9 69.9 7.4 10.8 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 21.5 26.7 25.2 160.0 78.6 71.3 8.2 12.3 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 11.9 14.1 20.6 109.1 65.3 59.2 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 15.7 17.4 115.1 68.6 59.0 4.4 7.4 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.0 21.2 23.4 148.3 76.0 69.8 5.7 10.0 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 8.9 11.3 11.8 101.0 60.9 55.0 4.8 6.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 21.2 19.4 25.6 131.6 72.8 66.2 7.4 13.6 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.1 12.9 13.9 107.1 63.4 58.7 4.7 7.3 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 47 53 100 18.4 19.6 25.8 130.2 73.0 65.5 6.1 10.6 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 11.4 15.1 20.2 137.2 74.8 65.8 5.8 10.7 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 9.5 11.2 11.5 94.1 59.8 53.2 2.9 7.8 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.2 10.2 15.1 109.5 63.8 59.3 2.7 7.0 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 17.0 19.6 21.0 123.8 70.3 63.6 8.3 12.5 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 48 52 100 16.6 19.2 23.0 145.9 74.5 67.4 6.6 10.9 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 17.3 14.7 22.9 147.1 75.9 69.9 3.6 8.4 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 12.3 18.2 19.7 130.8 69.9 65.2 7.4 11.0 16.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 14.9 19.3 21.7 128.7 73.3 64.6 5.5 8.0 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 17.4 24.0 24.2 124.6 71.1 63.5 9.2 15.2 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 10.3 11.3 14.3 109.7 64.5 59.3 6.9 9.8 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------