***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 20.1 20.6 18.6 -0.9 31.5 35.2 20.6 20.9 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 19.5 20.0 18.5 -1.0 29.1 33.8 20.2 21.0 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 19.8 20.2 18.6 -1.0 28.8 32.9 20.3 21.0 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.8 -0.9 29.9 34.8 13.2 13.9 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 20.3 20.4 16.7 -1.0 29.4 33.5 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 18.8 19.1 14.6 -0.8 33.5 36.3 19.1 19.8 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 19.4 19.6 18.3 -1.0 28.9 33.4 19.7 20.7 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 7.6 8.2 15.0 -0.9 30.6 35.4 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.3 -0.9 31.3 34.0 20.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 19.6 19.9 15.9 -0.9 31.0 35.1 19.9 20.4 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 72 28 0 100 19.8 19.7 16.7 -1.0 27.6 33.0 19.9 20.6 21.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 18.9 19.2 16.0 -1.0 28.0 33.9 19.4 19.9 20.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 19.8 20.1 15.8 -1.1 26.7 33.6 20.2 20.8 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 19.9 20.1 17.0 -1.0 27.5 33.2 20.3 21.0 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 19.8 20.2 17.4 -0.9 31.8 34.8 20.2 21.2 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 20.3 20.6 16.2 -1.0 27.1 33.3 20.9 21.3 22.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 19.3 19.7 18.4 -0.8 33.3 36.8 19.7 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 19.2 19.3 15.3 -0.8 31.0 35.9 19.3 20.0 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 19.4 19.7 18.5 -1.0 28.4 33.2 19.8 20.8 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 13.9 14.7 13.0 -0.7 34.1 38.1 14.5 15.2 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 19.8 20.3 18.2 -0.9 31.4 34.6 20.3 20.9 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.3 18.4 -0.7 33.6 37.6 20.2 21.2 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 19.6 20.2 18.4 -1.1 26.5 31.7 20.3 21.4 22.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 19.5 19.7 17.0 -1.0 29.0 33.5 19.8 20.7 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 19.7 20.2 17.0 -0.9 31.2 34.6 20.3 20.8 22.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 19.2 19.5 15.2 -0.9 29.9 35.3 19.6 20.3 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 19.6 20.1 17.8 -0.9 31.1 34.7 20.1 20.8 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 19.9 20.3 16.4 -0.9 30.1 34.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 14.0 14.4 14.5 -0.8 32.2 36.7 14.4 14.9 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 19.5 19.8 18.4 -1.1 28.3 32.8 19.9 20.9 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------