***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 20.0 20.4 18.0 -1.1 38.7 40.3 20.0 21.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 19.4 19.9 17.8 -1.3 34.2 37.7 19.9 21.5 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 19.2 20.1 18.1 -1.2 36.9 39.3 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.4 15.4 -0.7 45.1 43.1 12.3 14.6 15.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 19.5 20.6 16.5 -0.8 43.4 42.7 20.4 20.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 17.6 19.5 14.6 -0.4 49.3 46.3 18.2 19.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 19.0 19.2 17.6 -1.4 34.5 37.1 19.2 21.0 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.8 7.8 14.8 -0.6 46.0 44.3 7.2 8.6 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 19.5 19.8 17.1 -0.9 42.4 42.2 19.6 20.9 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 19.1 20.1 15.7 -0.7 44.6 43.4 19.4 20.3 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 19.1 20.3 16.6 -0.9 42.8 42.3 19.7 20.5 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 18.5 19.3 15.7 -0.8 43.6 43.0 18.6 19.5 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 19.1 20.4 15.9 -0.9 42.6 42.5 19.9 20.7 22.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 19.3 20.2 16.6 -1.1 35.1 40.5 19.9 21.1 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.8 20.7 17.1 -0.9 44.7 41.8 19.4 21.4 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 19.6 21.2 16.1 -0.8 43.5 42.9 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 18.9 19.4 17.6 -1.2 35.3 39.4 19.3 21.1 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 18.4 19.7 15.0 -0.7 43.4 43.8 18.8 20.1 21.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 18.8 19.8 17.9 -1.3 33.8 38.0 19.7 21.0 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 13.3 14.5 12.9 -0.4 46.8 46.2 13.7 14.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 19.2 20.1 17.9 -0.9 41.1 41.7 19.9 20.9 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 19.3 20.5 17.6 -1.1 36.5 40.4 20.1 21.3 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 19.2 20.1 17.8 -1.4 33.4 37.8 20.0 21.2 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 18.7 19.9 16.7 -1.0 38.5 41.2 19.6 20.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 19.0 20.2 16.7 -1.0 39.8 41.0 20.1 20.9 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 18.1 19.4 14.9 -0.7 43.2 43.2 18.9 19.8 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 19.0 19.6 17.3 -1.1 37.9 39.7 19.2 20.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.9 21.0 16.1 -0.7 46.3 43.3 19.5 21.6 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 13.4 14.2 14.3 -0.6 44.4 44.6 13.6 14.9 16.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.0 19.8 17.8 -1.4 34.2 37.5 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------