***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 16.6 16.2 14.9 -2.5 17.3 20.2 17.3 18.8 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 16.3 16.1 14.9 -2.6 18.0 19.1 17.4 18.5 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 16.3 16.0 14.6 -2.9 16.3 18.0 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 9.1 8.6 11.5 -2.4 17.2 20.5 10.3 11.0 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 16.8 16.4 12.8 -2.8 16.3 18.9 17.5 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 15.2 14.5 10.5 -2.7 16.2 19.8 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 15.7 15.5 14.7 -2.6 18.2 19.3 17.0 18.3 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.1 10.6 -2.9 14.3 18.6 4.9 6.7 8.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 16.3 16.1 13.8 -2.8 17.3 18.7 17.0 18.2 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 16.4 16.0 11.7 -2.9 15.9 18.6 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 16.6 16.1 13.0 -3.0 15.0 18.2 17.4 18.2 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 14.9 13.9 11.6 -3.0 14.3 18.0 16.3 17.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 16.1 14.8 12.4 -3.1 12.8 17.3 17.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 16.5 16.2 13.4 -2.9 17.3 18.2 17.9 19.3 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 16.0 16.2 14.3 -2.3 19.5 21.7 17.3 18.3 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 16.5 16.0 12.4 -3.0 14.4 17.9 17.8 18.6 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 15.8 15.7 14.7 -2.4 20.0 21.4 16.8 17.9 19.6 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 15.8 15.4 10.9 -3.0 15.5 18.6 17.1 17.6 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 16.3 16.2 14.8 -2.8 17.7 18.6 17.1 18.6 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 10.7 9.4 8.9 -2.9 13.6 19.4 11.7 13.0 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 16.5 16.3 14.5 -2.7 18.2 19.5 17.3 18.8 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 16.7 16.3 14.9 -2.4 20.4 21.6 17.8 19.1 20.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 16.5 16.2 14.6 -2.9 16.1 17.5 17.8 19.1 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 16.0 15.7 13.2 -3.0 16.9 18.3 17.3 18.3 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 16.0 15.5 13.6 -2.5 17.2 19.4 17.2 18.2 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 15.5 14.8 11.1 -2.7 15.1 19.4 16.9 18.3 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 15.9 15.4 14.2 -2.5 17.5 19.5 17.2 18.2 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 16.2 16.2 12.6 -2.5 17.6 20.6 17.3 18.2 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 11.1 10.4 10.2 -3.0 14.9 19.2 12.0 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 15.9 15.8 14.8 -2.7 17.7 18.6 17.2 18.6 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------