***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-16.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 8.6 8.6 9.1 -0.7 27.0 33.5 8.9 9.4 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.7 -0.8 23.7 31.9 8.6 9.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.1 9.1 -0.7 25.1 32.9 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.6 5.2 6.6 -0.5 32.3 37.7 5.2 5.7 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 6.8 6.8 7.0 -0.6 28.9 35.9 6.9 7.4 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.8 -0.3 39.0 41.5 5.9 6.5 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 8.3 8.0 8.7 -0.8 24.7 31.1 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 0.5 0.8 4.7 -0.5 30.6 36.7 0.8 1.3 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 7.5 7.7 7.2 -0.5 30.2 37.1 7.8 8.3 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.6 7.7 5.5 -0.5 30.4 37.2 7.9 8.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 7.4 7.1 6.4 -0.6 28.7 35.4 7.5 8.1 8.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 5.8 5.6 5.5 -0.6 28.0 34.8 6.0 6.5 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.2 5.3 -0.5 33.8 37.9 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.4 7.0 -0.5 29.2 36.0 8.4 9.1 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.7 7.9 -0.5 32.3 37.3 8.7 9.3 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 7.8 8.3 5.9 -0.5 31.3 36.8 8.3 8.9 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 8.4 8.7 8.6 -0.7 27.4 32.8 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 5.8 4.9 -0.4 31.1 38.8 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 8.3 8.0 8.7 -0.8 23.0 32.0 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.6 2.8 3.0 -0.5 31.7 38.4 2.8 3.2 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 7.5 7.9 8.4 -0.6 28.9 36.2 7.9 8.2 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 7.8 7.7 8.5 -0.7 26.4 33.0 8.0 8.9 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 8.0 7.7 8.6 -0.8 21.9 31.8 8.2 8.8 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.6 7.6 6.9 -0.5 30.3 37.0 7.8 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 7.7 7.8 7.9 -0.7 28.3 35.1 8.4 8.8 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.8 7.0 4.8 -0.5 33.9 38.5 6.9 7.4 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 8.0 8.1 8.5 -0.7 26.8 33.7 8.5 9.1 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 6.7 6.8 7.0 -0.5 32.6 38.0 6.8 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.8 5.1 4.3 -0.4 31.8 38.2 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 8.1 7.8 8.9 -0.8 23.5 31.3 8.7 9.2 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------