***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.05.2021.-09.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.4 10.5 0.0 48.3 49.1 8.4 9.4 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 8.5 9.4 10.2 0.0 47.3 48.4 8.4 9.5 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.9 10.4 0.0 48.6 48.9 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.1 7.8 0.0 49.8 48.9 5.7 6.1 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.4 7.9 0.0 48.6 48.8 6.5 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.4 6.0 0.2 54.1 52.4 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.6 10.1 -0.1 45.3 47.3 8.8 9.7 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 0.8 2.3 5.9 0.2 52.3 51.6 0.9 1.9 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.6 8.8 8.1 0.0 47.3 49.6 8.0 9.0 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 8.0 8.9 6.6 0.1 50.2 51.0 7.7 8.9 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.5 7.2 -0.1 48.0 49.1 7.4 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.9 7.0 6.6 0.0 49.5 50.2 6.4 7.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.3 6.1 0.1 53.2 50.7 7.2 8.2 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.8 9.1 8.0 0.0 46.1 49.5 9.0 9.2 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 9.0 9.9 8.9 0.0 47.3 48.5 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 8.1 9.2 6.7 0.0 51.2 50.0 8.3 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 9.2 10.1 10.0 0.0 46.5 48.4 9.1 10.1 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.6 5.9 0.2 50.5 52.2 5.9 6.6 8.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.3 10.2 0.0 48.3 48.7 8.8 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.0 4.0 0.3 52.9 53.3 3.3 3.8 4.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.8 9.6 0.1 48.8 50.0 7.4 9.1 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.0 9.9 0.0 48.5 49.2 8.4 9.0 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 8.6 9.1 9.9 -0.1 46.6 48.5 8.6 9.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.3 8.8 7.8 0.0 46.6 50.3 8.6 9.0 9.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.1 9.0 9.1 0.1 49.3 49.7 8.1 9.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.7 5.8 0.0 50.2 49.8 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 8.1 9.7 9.9 0.1 48.9 48.8 7.9 9.9 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.6 7.6 8.1 0.0 49.1 49.0 7.1 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 6.4 5.4 0.2 50.4 52.5 5.3 6.4 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.4 10.3 -0.1 47.8 48.0 8.4 9.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------