***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.6 8.2 -1.2 30.8 35.6 8.7 9.1 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 7.6 7.1 7.8 -1.3 26.3 34.1 8.2 9.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.5 8.2 -1.2 28.4 35.5 9.7 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.4 5.6 -1.0 34.2 38.0 4.4 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.7 6.6 6.3 -1.0 33.1 38.8 6.6 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.9 3.9 -0.8 35.3 40.6 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 7.4 7.4 7.8 -1.3 26.3 33.9 7.7 9.1 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -0.5 0.0 3.9 -0.8 30.8 39.9 0.1 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 -0.9 31.1 38.9 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 6.8 4.7 -0.9 29.6 39.1 7.2 7.8 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.9 6.0 5.6 -1.0 30.2 37.6 6.2 7.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.7 -0.9 31.6 39.3 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 5.7 6.2 4.5 -0.9 32.5 38.4 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.5 6.0 -1.1 26.8 36.0 7.5 8.4 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.7 6.9 -1.0 29.3 36.0 8.2 8.6 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.0 7.8 5.1 -1.0 31.7 37.9 7.9 8.5 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.9 8.0 7.6 -1.2 26.8 35.1 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.4 4.7 4.1 -0.8 31.5 40.1 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 7.3 7.6 7.8 -1.3 26.3 34.1 7.9 8.7 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 1.7 2.0 2.4 -0.7 34.0 41.8 1.9 2.6 3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.5 6.8 7.6 -1.0 31.5 38.1 7.2 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.2 7.1 7.6 -1.2 26.3 34.9 7.7 8.3 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.8 6.8 7.6 -1.3 26.3 34.0 7.9 8.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.5 6.7 6.1 -1.0 28.6 37.8 7.2 7.9 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.7 7.2 7.2 -1.2 30.3 36.4 7.4 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.1 -0.8 36.0 41.3 5.9 6.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.3 7.1 7.7 -1.2 30.7 36.3 7.1 9.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.2 5.7 6.0 -1.0 32.3 37.6 5.7 6.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.2 3.5 -0.8 30.3 39.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.3 8.0 -1.3 26.2 33.8 8.2 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------