***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 5.1 5.7 6.0 -1.7 21.6 23.0 6.2 7.6 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 4.5 4.6 5.7 -1.8 22.2 22.3 5.6 7.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 87 13 0 100 6.7 7.2 6.2 -1.7 22.2 22.9 7.9 8.5 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.2 1.9 3.9 -1.1 30.0 32.7 2.0 3.9 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 3.3 4.0 4.7 -1.3 26.2 28.2 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 4.9 3.9 2.3 -0.7 37.4 38.6 3.7 4.6 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 4.9 5.1 5.7 -1.8 22.7 22.7 6.2 7.3 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -2.2 -2.3 2.0 -1.3 26.6 27.4 -1.7 -0.3 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.7 4.9 5.0 -1.1 28.7 30.8 5.1 5.8 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.9 5.0 3.1 -1.2 29.2 29.7 5.3 6.5 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.4 -1.2 29.2 29.6 5.0 5.9 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.9 -1.4 23.9 25.6 3.8 4.6 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.0 3.5 -1.0 33.6 33.9 5.0 5.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.9 6.1 4.7 -1.1 31.3 32.4 6.2 6.9 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.3 5.7 -0.9 33.3 34.9 6.3 7.0 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 5.4 5.4 3.9 -1.1 29.9 31.5 5.6 7.0 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 5.3 5.4 5.6 -1.7 24.2 24.4 6.1 7.1 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 3.3 2.6 -1.1 31.0 31.4 3.5 4.1 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 5.0 5.0 5.7 -1.8 21.4 22.0 5.6 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 0.3 0.2 0.6 -1.3 26.4 27.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 4.1 4.8 5.8 -1.4 26.2 27.4 5.4 6.1 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 4.3 4.8 5.8 -1.7 22.6 23.2 5.2 6.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 5.0 4.8 5.7 -1.7 20.8 22.4 5.3 6.2 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.2 4.8 4.8 -1.1 31.0 32.1 4.9 6.2 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 4.3 4.4 5.3 -1.6 23.0 25.3 5.4 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.4 4.6 2.5 -1.0 32.6 34.0 4.7 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 3.5 4.2 5.5 -1.8 21.6 23.5 5.5 7.2 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.3 4.6 -0.9 32.6 34.8 4.3 5.2 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 2.2 2.5 1.8 -1.2 28.9 29.3 2.6 3.6 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 4.7 5.0 5.9 -1.9 20.8 21.6 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------