***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 42.2 57.5 62.5 113.2 66.3 60.9 32.6 37.2 56.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 46.0 51.1 58.7 121.4 67.9 63.8 21.9 42.8 50.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 52.1 54.9 59.9 110.4 61.5 59.0 30.4 48.7 58.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 66.1 67.6 66.8 105.4 59.2 56.3 46.2 63.1 71.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 50.1 59.4 63.1 106.5 60.8 57.1 37.0 44.1 67.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 54.2 46.5 67.0 95.5 50.2 47.3 34.9 46.2 69.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 46.6 54.9 57.9 119.9 67.2 62.6 22.6 43.2 54.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 93.9 95.7 66.8 96.3 52.9 50.1 80.6 90.9 99.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 50.5 55.0 64.4 106.1 59.9 55.8 29.9 43.8 64.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 53.4 59.0 71.8 102.8 56.2 53.9 39.5 46.9 67.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 48.0 52.9 61.3 102.9 57.9 54.2 38.0 43.8 57.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 52.5 51.5 58.5 95.8 55.0 49.4 44.7 49.2 55.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 36.7 47.7 63.3 94.4 50.3 47.1 40.5 47.5 62.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 58.3 57.4 77.3 105.5 60.6 56.8 34.3 49.8 63.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 48.7 45.9 59.3 101.8 57.1 52.6 36.5 45.5 54.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 49.8 52.1 61.8 101.6 56.3 52.5 32.6 43.3 58.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 67.4 64.4 58.3 124.9 70.1 64.4 27.2 46.3 60.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 64.9 64.7 76.4 101.1 52.9 52.3 41.3 61.4 76.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 51.3 66.2 59.9 118.8 67.5 62.7 35.3 47.9 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 62.6 60.0 79.4 101.6 53.3 52.7 46.4 59.3 65.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 46.9 46.7 62.2 109.7 58.7 58.4 29.4 43.4 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 43.1 53.6 61.5 124.3 67.0 64.2 25.5 39.0 51.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 41.9 54.3 62.3 113.0 67.4 59.7 26.9 35.8 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 63.9 61.2 69.0 102.0 54.0 53.7 40.7 60.2 73.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 54.8 60.9 69.1 110.5 66.2 59.6 41.3 51.2 60.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 32.0 46.9 55.2 84.4 48.2 40.1 42.0 48.2 53.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 46.9 63.5 67.4 113.2 67.3 61.4 29.2 40.8 58.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 49.3 46.7 62.2 101.3 56.9 52.2 30.8 44.8 52.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 78.7 73.8 76.9 100.1 53.2 52.1 61.8 72.5 92.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 44.3 58.5 59.2 117.6 67.4 62.4 20.8 38.3 56.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------