***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.2 19.3 14.9 125.0 73.3 60.5 3.6 9.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.1 15.0 14.1 136.2 72.7 61.4 3.7 6.5 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 10.1 17.6 15.0 124.8 70.5 60.6 2.2 8.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.4 27.0 17.4 122.1 70.2 57.4 2.8 11.0 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.2 17.0 128.6 68.8 60.9 3.0 8.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 10.6 17.6 17.4 110.7 62.0 56.0 7.1 8.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.6 12.0 13.9 132.2 72.5 59.2 2.5 4.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 19.4 20.8 18.3 120.3 67.0 61.0 9.4 18.3 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.6 15.0 17.7 127.9 72.1 61.5 3.7 6.4 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.7 17.1 19.9 124.2 69.5 61.3 7.7 10.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.7 12.3 15.9 124.2 68.7 60.8 3.8 6.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 9.3 11.8 15.3 114.4 64.3 58.9 4.5 7.7 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 7.9 8.8 15.9 105.6 58.8 54.5 3.2 7.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.1 17.4 22.8 133.8 70.6 61.6 3.0 10.1 17.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.1 15.6 112.0 63.4 54.0 3.4 8.3 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 9.6 11.5 16.1 118.1 64.2 58.0 2.7 8.4 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.9 19.4 13.5 128.7 69.8 58.5 3.1 7.8 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.7 18.7 21.8 125.0 71.0 61.5 6.6 12.1 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.0 17.2 14.7 134.6 71.6 61.4 6.0 11.7 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 8.8 14.1 21.2 123.6 67.8 63.0 4.1 7.3 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.0 18.3 16.4 127.8 70.9 61.5 2.4 9.9 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.9 19.2 15.0 131.4 74.5 61.6 4.2 7.2 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 10.1 13.9 15.8 129.6 67.3 59.7 2.8 8.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 12.6 20.6 19.9 128.0 70.7 61.5 5.2 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.1 24.1 17.6 126.4 73.2 59.8 5.3 10.0 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 8.0 7.4 13.7 99.1 57.4 50.9 3.6 6.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.0 16.4 16.4 126.1 71.4 60.6 4.1 9.2 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 15.4 17.0 120.6 67.0 56.9 3.5 7.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.2 24.5 21.3 121.2 70.0 61.3 7.1 17.0 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 9.4 18.1 14.5 136.2 75.1 61.6 2.2 7.4 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------