***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.6 17.7 102.4 65.8 57.9 4.7 8.2 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.4 16.5 111.6 68.3 58.1 3.4 7.2 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.9 15.5 17.4 109.9 66.1 57.8 3.4 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 19.6 19.6 108.6 63.9 55.2 7.8 14.8 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.2 19.7 118.1 63.7 56.1 5.0 6.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.9 10.9 22.7 116.7 65.7 53.7 6.9 8.9 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.3 15.8 106.5 64.7 57.5 4.0 6.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 28.1 32.7 21.3 122.3 69.5 57.2 15.1 23.6 32.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.9 14.1 20.5 120.5 66.1 56.1 2.6 8.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 17.3 23.1 125.6 68.6 57.8 7.1 9.8 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.7 18.7 123.5 66.8 57.0 5.2 7.6 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.9 15.4 19.0 123.2 70.6 56.6 7.7 12.9 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.8 15.6 22.0 123.9 65.9 54.3 6.4 10.9 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.1 21.0 22.9 111.1 64.3 56.5 6.2 13.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.4 18.5 108.9 66.2 56.2 3.8 8.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 12.2 20.3 124.8 68.2 55.7 4.5 9.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 11.5 13.7 16.7 120.6 70.4 59.8 3.9 6.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.4 19.5 24.7 122.2 66.0 56.3 6.7 11.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 18.3 19.6 17.0 111.7 68.0 58.3 4.2 10.4 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 23.7 25.7 127.9 70.9 57.4 6.2 11.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.1 18.6 115.3 68.0 57.7 3.8 7.3 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.5 13.8 18.1 126.1 70.0 60.6 5.0 6.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.0 17.9 17.8 112.4 66.3 58.5 5.2 7.6 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 15.2 21.1 110.1 61.2 55.1 4.2 12.1 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.4 14.2 19.7 103.0 66.1 56.7 2.6 7.7 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.0 14.1 19.1 116.1 61.4 53.4 8.0 10.9 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.6 18.5 99.8 66.4 57.4 5.0 7.8 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.2 13.0 19.3 110.3 63.2 54.2 6.5 9.8 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.2 24.3 24.6 124.3 68.0 56.5 9.0 20.0 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.2 16.4 106.5 67.7 57.4 3.1 8.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------