***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 5.9 8.2 16.7 129.4 74.6 64.2 4.1 5.2 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.5 15.6 127.0 71.6 59.4 2.0 4.0 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.9 10.7 15.3 117.1 67.4 60.3 3.4 6.2 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 8.8 11.8 17.5 122.0 68.1 60.1 3.6 7.4 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.8 16.1 111.0 65.9 57.4 2.6 5.4 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.3 16.8 91.9 55.1 48.4 4.4 9.2 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.0 9.3 16.0 134.0 71.2 62.0 1.5 3.5 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.8 19.2 16.2 96.1 58.9 51.8 8.8 13.0 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.2 5.8 15.1 102.5 59.5 53.5 2.3 4.3 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.5 16.9 101.9 60.6 54.1 4.3 8.1 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.0 16.8 102.4 59.6 54.2 2.1 4.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.8 15.3 95.6 57.8 51.6 2.9 7.9 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.1 16.7 95.2 57.5 50.5 4.8 8.5 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.8 12.2 18.4 102.4 63.2 58.0 6.0 8.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.1 15.5 115.5 66.3 57.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.8 15.7 98.7 58.6 51.6 2.4 6.4 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.6 12.0 16.8 142.5 73.9 62.1 1.8 3.5 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.0 10.8 16.9 94.8 56.4 51.0 3.6 10.4 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.2 8.3 15.6 120.9 71.5 59.4 3.1 4.2 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.6 10.3 20.2 105.9 61.8 56.1 6.5 8.7 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 6.0 7.8 15.6 115.5 63.8 58.0 2.3 4.9 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.7 9.2 17.0 136.7 73.5 63.0 2.3 4.4 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.9 16.0 113.9 70.6 60.3 3.5 7.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.1 15.8 95.3 58.6 51.4 3.4 5.6 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.7 11.6 18.8 128.5 71.8 62.5 3.6 5.9 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.1 15.3 85.7 53.2 45.5 2.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.8 11.6 18.8 133.1 74.7 64.2 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.5 5.3 14.9 103.9 60.1 53.1 1.6 3.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.7 13.9 18.3 96.6 58.9 52.6 5.9 13.1 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.7 9.9 15.8 126.5 70.5 60.8 2.9 4.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------