***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.3 13.1 100.6 57.9 54.4 8.3 13.1 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.6 12.5 114.5 63.5 57.5 5.2 8.6 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 12.1 13.2 12.2 91.8 57.5 52.6 7.8 9.8 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.6 14.9 12.2 73.3 49.1 43.9 12.0 15.1 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.4 7.2 10.3 69.6 44.6 40.6 5.8 8.0 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 6.2 7.9 10.1 60.9 38.3 32.9 6.1 10.0 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.3 9.2 12.3 111.2 63.6 56.8 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 11.6 13.0 10.9 54.9 30.5 29.3 13.7 17.6 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.2 9.4 11.1 73.7 46.8 43.0 8.1 9.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 7.1 8.9 12.0 64.3 37.1 35.4 8.8 13.0 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.8 11.8 9.9 65.1 38.9 36.8 9.0 14.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 5.9 8.8 8.9 54.8 31.4 29.1 8.9 11.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 6.9 9.6 8.7 52.1 34.6 30.5 9.2 15.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.6 11.1 13.3 75.4 48.2 45.2 7.2 11.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.0 9.7 9.7 70.1 49.4 43.8 5.5 9.8 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 8.1 9.3 9.7 64.5 39.8 36.7 6.6 14.3 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.2 13.0 11.4 107.4 65.3 56.8 5.1 10.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 7.1 6.6 13.0 66.2 35.7 36.5 6.0 12.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.5 12.7 111.1 62.6 57.1 5.7 9.6 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.7 6.5 12.3 56.9 29.1 29.3 7.3 9.7 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 9.3 11.6 81.8 52.1 48.4 5.8 8.8 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.5 11.4 101.2 61.9 54.4 3.9 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 9.1 11.8 12.7 97.6 58.0 54.7 3.1 8.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.7 14.0 12.2 74.7 45.9 43.7 7.4 14.5 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.1 12.9 87.7 54.2 50.9 7.2 11.0 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 3.8 4.1 7.2 41.3 28.0 23.0 5.4 10.6 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.9 15.1 13.7 98.6 57.9 54.4 6.2 10.1 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.2 8.9 11.0 71.5 47.0 41.3 4.7 10.3 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 9.6 11.6 12.7 62.8 33.5 34.4 11.3 18.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 10.5 11.6 12.5 105.9 61.5 55.5 5.8 8.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------