***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 19.9 20.3 18.9 -0.8 30.5 35.4 20.5 20.8 22.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 19.3 19.8 18.6 -1.0 27.3 33.2 20.0 21.0 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 19.7 20.1 19.1 -0.8 29.0 35.7 20.2 20.8 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.4 16.7 -0.3 45.6 43.7 13.2 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.7 17.7 -0.4 41.8 42.4 20.5 21.0 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 19.8 19.7 16.2 0.4 61.1 57.1 18.9 19.6 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 19.1 19.4 18.6 -0.9 27.7 33.4 19.5 20.5 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.7 16.2 0.0 49.1 49.0 7.9 8.7 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.0 18.1 -0.4 39.5 41.2 20.0 20.2 21.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.0 16.8 -0.3 43.4 44.3 19.7 20.1 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.3 17.8 -0.2 47.0 46.2 19.8 20.3 21.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.7 17.2 0.1 51.4 50.7 19.1 19.7 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 20.8 20.5 17.1 0.1 51.7 50.1 20.0 20.5 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 19.8 20.0 17.5 -0.9 28.9 34.3 20.2 20.8 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 21.2 20.8 18.3 -0.3 47.7 44.7 20.2 20.9 21.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 21.4 21.1 17.4 0.0 50.1 49.0 20.6 21.1 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 18.8 19.0 18.4 -1.0 27.2 32.3 19.3 20.4 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 19.2 19.4 16.1 -0.4 40.8 41.8 19.2 19.7 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 19.1 19.5 18.7 -1.0 26.9 33.3 19.7 20.6 22.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.4 14.8 14.0 -0.1 45.5 46.5 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.8 -0.7 33.8 37.8 20.0 20.6 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 19.2 19.6 18.3 -1.1 25.3 30.9 19.8 20.9 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 19.5 19.9 18.7 -0.9 27.9 34.3 20.3 21.1 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 19.5 19.7 17.6 -0.7 32.9 37.3 19.7 20.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 19.6 20.0 17.5 -0.8 31.9 36.0 20.1 20.7 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 20.1 20.5 16.7 0.6 63.2 60.1 19.4 19.9 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 19.4 19.5 18.2 -0.8 30.0 34.6 19.8 20.6 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 21.1 20.9 17.5 -0.2 51.3 47.3 20.2 20.8 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.4 15.4 -0.4 42.0 42.4 14.2 14.6 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 19.3 19.5 18.8 -0.9 27.6 34.4 19.7 20.7 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------