***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 21.5 21.7 20.1 -1.5 34.2 34.6 21.5 23.4 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 21.4 22.5 20.0 -1.5 33.4 35.3 22.5 23.5 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 22.0 21.5 20.3 -1.7 33.9 33.8 21.5 23.9 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.1 15.0 18.0 -1.5 33.9 35.5 15.0 15.7 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.4 18.5 -1.6 34.5 34.6 22.2 23.6 24.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.3 20.3 16.5 -1.3 39.5 38.1 20.2 21.4 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.3 21.9 20.1 -1.5 33.8 35.7 21.8 23.1 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.2 16.9 -1.4 38.9 36.6 9.2 11.0 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.0 21.3 18.7 -1.7 33.5 33.9 21.3 23.2 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 20.7 21.4 17.5 -1.6 37.1 35.2 21.1 22.1 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 21.3 21.7 18.3 -1.5 38.6 36.3 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 20.7 20.7 17.9 -1.3 40.3 37.6 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 21.3 21.7 17.2 -1.3 40.5 37.7 21.3 22.2 23.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.4 18.4 -1.7 33.1 34.0 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.1 18.9 -1.3 38.4 37.1 21.9 22.9 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 22.0 22.2 17.9 -1.4 38.8 37.0 22.0 23.3 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 20.6 21.3 20.0 -1.5 34.2 36.0 21.2 22.3 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.0 17.0 -1.7 35.3 34.6 20.8 22.0 23.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 21.3 21.5 20.1 -1.6 33.3 34.7 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 15.9 16.1 14.6 -1.6 35.4 35.6 15.9 16.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 21.2 21.1 19.6 -1.7 32.1 33.0 21.3 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 21.3 22.0 19.8 -1.5 33.8 34.7 22.0 23.3 25.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.6 20.0 -1.6 32.9 34.0 22.6 23.5 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 21.3 21.4 18.4 -1.7 33.4 33.7 21.4 23.0 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 21.2 21.7 18.4 -1.6 33.4 33.9 21.7 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.9 21.1 17.3 -1.0 41.4 41.8 20.8 21.5 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 21.5 21.6 19.3 -1.5 35.0 34.5 21.3 23.4 24.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.3 18.3 -1.4 37.1 36.4 21.8 23.1 24.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 15.9 16.0 16.1 -1.7 34.9 34.9 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.4 22.3 20.1 -1.5 34.4 35.1 22.1 23.2 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------