***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.4 19.3 -0.9 41.3 40.0 20.0 22.1 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.9 20.7 19.2 -0.9 39.0 40.7 20.4 22.4 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.3 19.5 -0.9 40.6 40.3 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.7 17.3 -0.8 42.0 41.5 13.3 14.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 20.9 21.5 17.9 -0.8 40.3 41.9 20.8 22.4 23.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 16.1 -0.5 47.5 45.5 19.3 21.1 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.3 20.1 19.2 -0.8 38.8 41.2 19.8 21.8 23.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 8.1 8.9 16.3 -0.7 41.5 43.5 8.2 10.0 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.9 18.1 -0.8 39.8 42.0 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.1 17.0 -0.8 40.1 42.7 20.8 21.5 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.5 17.7 -0.6 41.9 43.3 21.0 22.0 23.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 19.2 20.2 17.3 -0.6 43.4 44.2 19.8 21.0 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.8 16.7 -0.7 46.5 44.0 20.7 22.0 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 20.7 21.0 17.7 -1.0 37.8 40.4 20.4 22.1 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.7 18.3 -0.6 44.6 42.1 21.2 21.9 22.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.0 17.4 -0.6 45.5 44.1 21.1 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.5 20.2 19.0 -0.9 41.5 41.5 20.0 20.8 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 19.3 20.2 16.4 -0.9 39.7 41.8 19.8 20.7 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 20.5 19.2 -0.9 39.6 40.3 20.2 21.8 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 14.5 14.7 13.8 -0.9 39.0 41.4 14.4 16.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.1 18.9 -0.9 40.4 41.0 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.5 21.2 18.9 -0.9 41.5 40.6 20.3 21.9 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.0 19.2 -0.9 40.0 40.3 20.7 21.8 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.4 20.7 17.8 -1.0 39.0 40.8 20.3 21.5 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 20.9 21.4 17.7 -0.9 40.0 39.8 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.9 16.7 -0.4 48.8 46.2 20.3 21.0 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 20.8 21.3 18.5 -0.9 39.9 39.9 20.6 22.2 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 20.6 21.8 17.7 -0.7 44.7 43.0 20.9 22.0 23.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.3 14.5 15.4 -1.0 38.8 41.1 14.2 15.8 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.7 20.6 19.2 -0.9 39.3 40.7 20.2 22.1 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------