***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 18.8 19.3 16.9 -2.2 22.8 27.9 19.9 21.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 17.7 17.6 16.6 -2.5 21.0 25.3 19.8 21.2 22.7 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 17.9 17.9 17.0 -2.3 21.9 27.6 19.6 20.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 11.3 12.6 14.7 -1.5 32.5 34.8 12.6 13.9 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 18.6 19.1 15.6 -1.8 27.9 32.6 19.9 20.7 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 17.3 18.4 14.1 -0.9 38.3 41.3 18.1 19.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 17.8 17.5 16.5 -2.5 21.4 25.6 19.0 20.7 21.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.4 6.8 14.0 -1.5 32.0 35.9 6.8 8.3 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 18.0 18.9 16.3 -1.8 28.5 31.7 19.2 20.4 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 18.1 19.0 14.8 -1.7 29.8 33.8 19.1 20.4 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 18.4 19.6 15.9 -1.5 30.7 35.5 19.8 20.7 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 17.6 18.7 15.1 -1.3 33.3 37.6 18.6 19.2 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 18.8 19.8 15.3 -1.3 33.2 37.9 19.8 20.5 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 17.6 17.8 15.6 -2.5 21.8 26.7 19.8 20.8 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.0 19.7 16.7 -1.4 34.1 36.1 19.5 20.7 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 19.1 19.7 15.5 -1.4 31.6 37.1 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 17.4 16.7 16.3 -2.6 21.2 24.9 18.8 20.7 22.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 17.4 18.6 14.0 -2.0 27.8 31.7 18.8 20.0 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 17.3 16.8 16.6 -2.5 20.9 25.3 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 12.7 13.4 11.7 -1.9 28.5 32.3 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 18.0 18.4 16.9 -2.1 24.4 29.2 19.7 20.7 22.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 17.3 17.0 16.2 -2.7 19.7 24.0 19.9 21.1 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 17.3 17.6 16.7 -2.5 21.8 26.3 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 17.6 17.6 15.6 -2.2 24.0 28.9 19.2 20.6 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 17.8 17.6 15.6 -2.1 23.8 29.0 19.8 20.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.2 18.6 14.6 -0.7 40.4 43.0 18.5 19.6 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 18.1 17.8 16.2 -2.3 22.4 27.3 19.0 21.0 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.3 19.4 15.7 -1.2 35.9 37.9 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 12.6 13.2 13.1 -2.0 26.6 31.1 13.5 15.1 16.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 17.9 17.0 16.7 -2.4 20.5 26.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------