***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 20.4 21.4 19.2 1.5 80.3 71.1 17.2 18.6 19.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 20.1 21.0 18.8 1.0 77.0 66.1 16.7 18.4 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 20.7 21.4 19.5 1.7 81.6 72.3 16.8 19.0 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 13.1 14.0 16.9 2.4 85.1 78.8 9.2 10.8 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 20.6 21.4 18.6 2.6 85.4 80.3 16.7 18.9 20.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 19.3 22.0 18.0 4.4 96.5 91.9 15.6 17.3 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 19.7 20.5 18.7 1.0 77.4 65.1 16.7 18.0 19.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 8.2 11.5 17.5 3.6 92.1 87.0 4.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 20.1 21.0 19.4 2.5 84.9 79.0 16.6 18.4 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 20.3 21.5 18.0 3.0 88.0 82.2 16.6 18.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 20.5 21.6 19.3 3.0 87.9 83.1 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 19.6 22.5 18.4 3.6 92.8 87.5 15.5 17.7 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 20.2 23.5 19.2 3.5 92.4 87.0 16.7 18.4 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 20.5 21.0 18.4 1.6 77.7 69.9 17.1 19.0 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 19.9 21.3 19.2 2.1 85.8 76.9 16.6 18.0 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 20.5 23.6 19.0 3.4 90.8 86.4 17.0 18.5 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 19.6 19.7 18.2 0.8 72.2 62.1 16.3 17.8 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 20.1 21.3 17.2 3.0 86.2 81.5 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 20.0 20.6 18.9 1.1 77.2 66.6 16.4 18.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 14.8 18.1 16.0 4.0 92.9 88.7 10.7 12.4 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 20.6 21.4 19.8 2.1 83.1 75.7 16.9 18.9 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 19.9 20.2 18.3 0.7 70.2 60.1 17.2 18.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 20.5 21.2 19.1 1.3 79.2 68.5 17.0 19.0 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 20.4 21.2 18.7 2.1 81.5 75.0 16.5 18.8 19.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 20.5 21.4 18.3 1.7 80.7 72.9 16.3 18.2 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 19.6 22.7 18.2 4.4 96.9 92.7 16.1 17.9 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 20.2 21.1 18.6 1.4 79.7 70.5 16.5 18.3 20.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 20.1 21.4 18.2 2.7 87.9 81.1 16.7 18.0 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 15.2 16.9 16.8 3.3 88.5 83.4 11.1 13.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 20.1 21.1 19.0 1.3 79.0 68.6 16.3 18.4 20.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------