***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.0 9.5 -0.3 39.4 41.0 8.7 9.3 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.5 9.1 -0.5 35.9 38.0 8.3 9.2 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.0 10.2 9.7 -0.3 40.5 42.1 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 5.6 5.2 7.1 -0.1 44.0 46.3 5.1 5.3 5.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.3 7.7 -0.1 44.7 46.8 6.5 7.4 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 6.5 6.7 5.8 0.6 64.5 62.1 5.8 6.4 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.5 9.2 -0.4 37.3 39.3 8.2 9.1 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.5 1.5 5.6 0.2 54.6 54.9 0.7 1.2 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 8.4 7.9 7.8 -0.1 42.3 46.2 7.5 8.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.5 6.5 0.1 48.5 51.0 7.5 8.5 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 7.9 7.8 7.3 0.1 50.0 52.2 7.2 7.8 8.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.3 57.0 57.5 5.9 6.3 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.5 7.6 6.3 0.3 55.7 56.8 7.1 7.4 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 7.6 -0.3 41.4 42.5 8.3 8.7 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 9.2 9.1 8.6 0.1 50.8 52.0 8.5 9.1 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.8 6.9 0.3 54.4 56.2 8.1 8.7 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 8.3 8.7 8.8 -0.6 32.5 35.9 8.7 9.4 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.3 6.0 0.1 50.8 51.6 5.8 6.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.6 9.1 -0.5 36.0 38.4 8.3 8.9 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.4 4.0 0.3 57.1 55.8 2.6 2.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.3 7.7 9.1 -0.2 40.8 43.9 7.6 8.1 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 7.7 7.7 8.8 -0.6 32.0 36.1 7.8 8.8 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.1 9.0 -0.4 36.4 39.8 8.0 8.5 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.1 7.7 -0.2 44.3 45.5 7.5 8.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.3 8.4 -0.3 39.3 40.8 8.2 8.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.7 5.9 0.6 65.5 64.2 6.6 7.3 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.3 9.1 -0.3 40.4 41.7 8.2 9.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 7.1 7.2 7.7 0.2 52.5 52.8 6.5 7.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.6 5.3 0.1 49.9 51.0 4.9 5.6 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.5 9.3 -0.4 37.3 39.7 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------