***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.05.2016.-15.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.6 9.5 10.8 -1.0 35.0 36.5 9.4 10.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.8 9.9 10.5 -0.9 36.1 37.1 9.7 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.1 10.9 -0.9 32.0 36.1 11.1 12.9 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 6.0 6.5 8.3 -0.8 31.7 37.2 6.5 7.7 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 7.8 8.6 8.5 -0.8 30.8 37.5 8.6 8.8 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.5 6.6 -0.5 41.5 42.4 7.3 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 9.6 10.4 10.6 -0.8 39.3 38.5 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 2.2 2.3 6.5 -0.6 35.9 39.8 2.1 3.4 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 8.6 9.3 8.8 -0.8 30.1 37.8 9.3 9.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.8 9.0 7.4 -0.7 32.4 38.5 9.1 10.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 8.6 8.7 8.0 -0.7 33.2 38.9 8.7 9.3 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.3 -0.6 35.9 40.0 7.3 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 8.3 8.8 6.7 -0.7 35.9 38.9 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.2 8.7 -1.0 31.1 34.9 9.4 10.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 9.9 10.0 9.6 -0.6 35.0 38.7 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.6 7.5 -0.6 35.9 39.6 9.3 10.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.2 10.4 -0.9 36.7 37.9 10.0 11.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 7.4 6.9 -0.7 33.3 38.5 7.4 8.3 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 9.8 9.7 10.5 -1.0 34.2 36.2 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.6 -0.6 34.6 40.4 4.1 4.4 5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 8.6 9.1 10.1 -0.9 32.0 36.5 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.2 9.8 10.1 -1.0 33.9 36.2 9.6 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.6 10.4 -1.0 32.9 35.7 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.6 -0.8 32.2 36.6 8.8 9.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.7 9.3 -1.0 35.0 36.0 9.6 9.9 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 8.3 8.7 6.5 -0.6 41.4 41.1 8.2 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.8 9.3 10.2 -0.9 36.9 37.0 9.1 11.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.0 8.3 8.7 -0.7 34.0 39.1 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.4 6.1 6.2 -0.7 34.2 38.5 6.0 7.8 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 9.6 10.3 10.7 -0.9 36.9 37.3 9.8 10.8 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------