***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.05.2016.-08.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.0 10.0 -0.6 39.7 41.3 8.7 9.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.2 9.5 -0.7 37.7 40.3 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.5 10.0 -0.7 39.1 40.7 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.8 7.4 -0.5 39.6 41.6 5.3 6.4 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.6 7.6 -0.5 39.2 42.7 6.6 8.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.6 6.8 5.7 -0.3 45.3 45.7 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.1 9.7 -0.6 38.2 41.2 8.7 9.9 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.4 1.7 5.6 -0.4 42.1 44.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.3 7.9 -0.5 40.1 43.3 7.9 8.4 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.2 6.4 -0.4 41.4 43.8 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.7 8.0 7.0 -0.4 41.0 44.1 7.6 8.3 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.4 6.6 6.3 -0.3 41.9 44.8 6.2 7.0 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.5 5.8 -0.5 39.9 42.5 7.3 8.0 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 7.8 -0.6 38.8 40.9 9.0 9.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.1 8.6 -0.5 40.2 43.0 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.5 6.5 -0.4 41.3 43.8 8.3 8.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 9.4 -0.7 37.1 40.2 9.2 9.9 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.3 5.9 -0.4 42.1 43.2 6.0 7.0 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.1 9.5 -0.7 37.1 39.8 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.5 3.7 -0.4 44.1 44.4 2.9 3.9 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.9 9.2 -0.6 38.7 41.0 7.8 8.7 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.7 9.2 -0.7 36.4 39.4 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.1 9.4 -0.7 37.7 40.0 9.0 9.4 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.8 7.6 -0.6 40.0 41.2 8.6 9.0 9.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.6 8.5 -0.7 38.3 40.3 8.4 9.4 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.4 5.6 -0.3 43.2 45.4 7.1 7.6 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.7 9.3 -0.6 39.1 41.7 8.1 10.0 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.4 7.8 -0.5 40.7 43.0 7.3 7.7 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.1 5.3 -0.4 43.2 43.4 5.4 6.3 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.0 9.7 -0.6 39.3 41.0 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------