***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.7 8.0 7.6 -1.7 29.2 28.3 8.1 9.2 9.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 7.1 6.5 7.1 -1.9 23.2 24.6 7.8 9.2 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 8.6 8.6 7.7 -1.7 24.1 27.2 9.5 11.0 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.0 3.2 5.2 -1.4 29.0 30.5 4.3 5.4 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.1 6.0 5.8 -1.5 26.8 29.4 6.2 7.3 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.7 4.7 3.9 -0.7 36.5 39.4 4.6 5.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 6.8 6.4 7.2 -1.9 23.9 24.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 3.6 -1.3 24.4 29.9 -0.2 1.0 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 5.9 6.5 6.0 -1.5 25.0 26.9 6.8 7.4 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 6.3 6.4 4.4 -1.5 22.9 27.9 7.0 7.6 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 5.5 5.9 5.5 -1.2 27.9 30.8 6.2 7.0 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.4 4.6 -1.2 29.6 32.6 4.7 5.6 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.6 6.2 4.5 -1.0 29.7 34.4 6.5 6.9 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.6 -1.7 19.0 24.5 7.1 8.3 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 6.9 7.8 6.9 -0.9 33.2 35.3 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 7.1 7.1 5.1 -1.1 31.0 34.2 7.2 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 6.8 6.6 6.8 -2.0 18.9 22.4 8.1 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.6 3.9 -1.6 17.6 27.0 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 6.9 6.9 7.2 -1.8 23.2 24.9 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 1.3 0.8 1.9 -1.5 19.5 29.6 1.5 2.9 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 6.0 6.1 7.2 -1.6 24.4 27.6 7.0 7.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 6.4 6.1 6.9 -1.9 17.6 23.2 7.2 8.2 9.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 6.0 6.7 7.1 -1.7 22.4 25.3 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 5.4 4.8 5.7 -1.7 19.2 25.7 6.6 7.8 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 6.4 6.9 6.6 -1.7 27.8 28.0 7.1 8.2 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.1 -0.8 35.4 38.5 5.9 7.1 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.4 7.5 7.2 -1.7 30.2 28.8 7.8 8.5 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.9 5.8 5.9 -1.0 33.4 35.4 5.8 6.5 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 3.1 2.8 3.1 -1.6 18.3 26.7 3.7 5.0 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.1 7.4 -1.8 24.9 25.9 7.5 9.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------