***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.04.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 8.3 9.2 9.8 1.9 86.5 80.2 6.5 7.3 7.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 8.1 8.7 9.1 1.5 80.5 74.3 5.5 7.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 10.3 11.1 10.1 2.0 88.0 81.5 7.8 8.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 4.6 6.2 7.5 2.3 89.5 83.4 1.9 3.3 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 7.4 8.2 8.7 2.5 89.4 85.1 4.5 5.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 6.7 7.5 7.0 3.8 97.7 93.5 4.1 4.5 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 8.0 8.9 9.2 1.6 82.2 76.4 6.2 7.2 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 0.8 1.8 6.9 3.3 94.6 91.8 -1.7 -1.1 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 7.5 8.8 8.7 2.3 90.0 84.1 5.5 6.1 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 7.7 8.7 7.6 2.9 92.3 89.0 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 7.8 8.5 8.7 2.9 91.5 89.0 5.0 6.0 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 6.3 7.4 8.0 3.4 95.2 91.9 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.7 8.7 8.1 3.6 96.7 92.9 4.7 5.5 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 8.1 9.3 8.4 2.2 88.3 84.1 6.0 6.6 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 8.6 9.9 9.1 2.5 93.3 87.1 6.2 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 8.5 9.6 8.5 3.4 95.1 92.0 5.7 6.4 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 8.1 8.6 8.7 1.2 77.9 71.2 6.0 7.0 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 5.8 7.1 7.3 3.1 93.4 90.4 3.3 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 7.9 8.4 9.2 1.5 81.8 75.5 5.6 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 2.8 4.3 5.8 3.6 96.5 92.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 7.9 8.8 9.9 2.3 90.1 84.1 5.6 6.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.9 9.0 1.3 79.0 73.0 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 7.9 8.4 9.3 1.8 84.8 78.6 5.5 6.5 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 7.7 8.9 8.7 2.4 89.8 84.9 5.2 5.7 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 8.1 8.8 9.3 2.1 88.7 81.8 5.8 7.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 7.3 8.7 7.5 3.9 97.7 94.3 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.9 9.6 9.6 2.0 86.8 80.7 5.7 7.2 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 6.5 7.8 8.5 2.8 93.2 87.2 4.7 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 4.8 6.5 6.5 3.1 94.2 90.3 2.8 3.4 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 8.4 9.0 9.5 1.7 82.7 76.8 6.1 7.2 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------