***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 49.5 48.0 66.5 105.2 59.4 54.6 32.5 42.6 50.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 44.8 46.2 59.1 105.6 60.3 56.6 23.5 40.8 50.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 52.1 52.8 65.8 105.6 57.6 55.0 31.9 47.4 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 67.6 67.9 74.2 104.7 58.0 54.0 50.2 64.7 72.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 53.8 52.3 73.0 107.0 59.5 54.7 38.0 48.7 68.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 36.5 42.5 74.2 92.4 43.4 44.9 34.5 46.8 66.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 45.5 48.8 58.5 104.7 60.0 56.0 24.8 43.0 51.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 93.6 90.8 76.8 98.0 53.6 49.9 82.8 90.3 96.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 54.8 56.9 74.3 107.0 59.6 54.8 31.7 49.4 64.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 60.9 59.8 80.5 100.6 54.4 51.3 41.8 55.4 69.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 51.1 50.7 69.0 100.6 55.0 51.3 38.9 46.3 62.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 52.2 49.7 67.9 98.1 52.8 49.8 44.3 49.2 58.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 51.6 47.8 72.1 94.8 47.4 47.3 42.4 48.0 63.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 57.8 53.5 84.5 103.9 58.3 54.2 34.3 46.1 83.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 50.4 47.1 63.5 98.1 53.7 50.2 34.8 46.3 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 48.5 43.3 69.1 98.9 52.1 50.5 34.8 42.6 58.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 50.7 58.0 59.6 110.0 63.9 58.4 27.7 47.2 58.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 64.9 66.4 86.6 101.9 57.2 53.8 46.1 59.4 81.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 53.9 53.0 60.7 105.0 59.3 56.0 35.5 49.1 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 62.1 60.0 90.3 102.7 57.3 54.2 47.4 59.1 67.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 48.4 48.8 71.8 110.0 62.6 56.5 35.6 43.8 50.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 40.5 43.4 61.4 107.0 60.8 56.8 26.0 36.7 44.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 41.3 44.1 64.8 105.6 61.0 56.1 29.0 34.5 53.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 65.6 65.0 78.9 105.3 59.6 55.2 43.5 60.3 75.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 56.2 55.2 77.7 109.0 61.3 56.2 42.2 51.3 57.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 49.8 47.0 65.0 89.1 44.0 41.9 42.1 47.7 53.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 51.7 51.6 71.3 105.5 58.6 54.9 30.7 44.8 64.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 48.6 46.7 67.5 97.8 53.1 50.0 32.9 45.0 51.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 81.2 85.6 88.9 103.5 60.0 55.2 59.2 73.4 99.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 44.4 46.2 60.4 104.6 58.9 55.6 21.0 38.1 52.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------