***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.05.2017.-14.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.8 15.6 15.1 91.0 56.9 45.6 4.0 11.3 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.0 5.1 12.2 79.4 50.1 42.3 2.1 5.1 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.5 8.3 14.7 88.5 54.7 44.4 3.2 7.9 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.4 12.3 17.6 97.5 59.4 49.2 2.9 10.8 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.6 17.5 98.1 57.9 47.4 3.0 10.0 14.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 4.9 10.7 18.1 84.6 49.9 44.2 7.4 10.8 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.2 4.1 12.2 80.5 50.4 42.6 3.2 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 17.2 13.7 19.1 92.2 54.0 47.0 9.9 12.6 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.3 10.1 18.4 100.4 56.6 47.2 3.1 8.3 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.7 12.9 20.5 95.8 55.4 46.8 4.4 11.1 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.9 9.0 15.7 89.3 54.4 45.1 4.4 8.4 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.2 16.1 87.6 52.0 45.7 4.9 8.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.4 17.1 82.1 52.3 43.5 1.7 8.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.8 8.6 19.6 85.6 50.8 43.0 5.2 8.3 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.3 14.8 87.7 55.2 46.0 4.9 8.4 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.2 9.3 15.8 84.8 54.0 43.8 3.6 8.4 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.3 13.0 85.2 51.6 42.2 2.5 6.6 15.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.9 12.0 22.4 97.7 55.5 47.7 5.1 10.7 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.9 11.5 12.6 78.9 49.8 41.5 4.7 11.6 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.6 7.8 22.9 97.2 56.3 47.8 3.9 7.2 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.4 15.8 17.2 101.8 59.8 47.8 2.3 8.6 18.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.3 13.7 83.2 52.0 41.2 4.3 7.1 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.7 13.9 83.7 49.0 42.3 4.6 8.8 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.5 13.2 19.0 93.2 54.4 45.6 5.4 10.1 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.5 17.9 97.7 56.9 48.0 4.3 10.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.3 5.2 15.7 81.6 50.3 42.5 2.5 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.3 14.2 15.9 91.3 54.4 45.6 4.8 13.4 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.3 16.3 91.1 57.0 46.7 3.8 8.8 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.8 18.8 22.5 98.0 57.0 47.9 7.2 16.8 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.6 7.6 12.8 82.4 51.4 43.6 2.0 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------